As Sweden and Tunisia meet at Estadio BBVA in Guadalupe, both teams are chasing momentum on the World Cup stage. Sweden, with a solid home record, have demonstrated their attacking strength by averaging 2.6 goals per game at home. Tunisia, meanwhile, face the challenge of overcoming recent defensive lapses on the road. With both teams
Sweden vs Tunisia | World Cup | 15/06/2026
05.06.2026
06:43
World Cup15/06/2026
Sweden
57%
VS
Tunisia
18%
Prediction
Sweden @ 1.88
Over 2.5 Goals
YES @ 2.25
57% probability
★ BEST BET
Over 2.5 @ 2.25
The model suggests a 57% probability for Over 2.5 goals, creating a value edge compared to the implied probability of 44.44% from the odds. Sweden's home matches often see high-scoring affairs, with 70% ending with over 2.5 goals. Tunisia's defensive vulnerabilities away from home further bolster this market's appeal.
💡 Sweden averages 2.6 goals per game at home, highlighting their attacking prowess on familiar turf. This scoring capability is complemented by Tunisia's tendency to concede away, making goals a likely feature in this encounter.
Final Result
Sweden 5 : 1 Tunisia
Our prediction: 1 ✓
As Sweden and Tunisia meet at Estadio BBVA in Guadalupe, both teams are chasing momentum on the World Cup stage. Sweden, with a solid home record, have demonstrated their attacking strength by averaging 2.6 goals per game at home. Tunisia, meanwhile, face the challenge of overcoming recent defensive lapses on the road. With both teams looking to assert their credentials in this group stage clash, the match promises to test Sweden's offensive consistency against Tunisia's resolve.
Team Statistics
Venue
Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe
53,500 capacity · Grass
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.22
Double Chance X21.85
Double Chance 121.28
Over 1.5 Goals1.42
Under 1.5 Goals2.8
Recent Form: Scoring & Defensive Patterns
Sweden's recent form shows a mixed bag of results, with a 2-2 draw against Greece and a 3-1 loss to Norway. Their home performances remain strong, scoring an average of 2.6 goals per game. Defensively, they have conceded one or more goals in three of their last five outings, highlighting a vulnerability that Tunisia could exploit. Tunisia's recent form includes a narrow 1-0 loss to Austria and a goalless draw with Canada. Their away performances have been inconsistent, scoring 1.38 goals on average but conceding frequently. Sweden's attacking momentum at home, contrasted with Tunisia's defensive struggles, suggests a potential for goals, particularly in Sweden's favour.
Best Bet Recommendation
The highest-value market is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.25. The model assigns a 57% probability, which is significantly higher than the 44.44% implied by the odds. Sweden's home scoring average of 2.6 goals per game and Tunisia's defensive issues bolster this choice. The absence of head-to-head data complicates reliance on historical patterns but does not diminish the statistical support for this market. As an alternative, Over 1.5 goals offers a safer bet at odds of 1.42 with a 79% probability. A combination bet on Over 2.5 and BTTS could also provide value given the attacking profiles of both sides.
Goal Markets: The Full Analysis
Expected goals (xG) figures reveal Sweden's superior attacking quality, with an xG of 1.92 indicating a strong likelihood of scoring multiple goals. For the Over/Under 2.5 market, the model predicts a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals, priced at odds of 2.25. This offers a value edge given Sweden's 70% rate of games exceeding this mark. Tunisia's away matches show less tendency for high scores, but their defensive frailties could be exposed. BTTS is a viable option at odds of 2.00, especially since Sweden have scored in 16 of their last 20 games. However, Tunisia's clean sheet potential could complicate this market. The Over 1.5 market is a safer alternative, with a 79% model probability and odds of 1.42, suggesting a high likelihood of at least two goals. Goal timing data show Sweden often start strong, hinting at potential for early goals. Ranked by value, the markets are Over 2.5, Over 1.5, and BTTS.
Frequently Asked Questions
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What is Sweden's recent form?
Sweden's last five results include a 2-2 draw with Greece, a 3-1 loss to Norway, and a 3-2 win against Poland. At home, they have won six of their last ten matches, averaging 2.6 goals and keeping four clean sheets. Their form appears stable.
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What is at stake in Sweden vs Tunisia?
With no specific standings data available, both teams aim to establish dominance in the World Cup group stage. Sweden's home form and Tunisia's need to improve defensively are key factors.
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