Primeira Liga04.05.2026
Sporting CP faces Guimaraes at Estádio José Alvalade, Lisboa, in a crucial Primeira Liga clash. Sporting CP, ranked third with 73 points, seeks to solidify their Europa League qualification, while seventh-placed Guimaraes aims to close the gap to European spots. Sporting's recent form shows a slight decline, drawing three of their last five matches, whereas Guimaraes is improving, with three wins in their last five. This matchup promises to be a tightly contested battle.
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonçalo Inácio | Defender | 1 | 3 | 7.59 | 26 | 18 |
| M. Hjulmand | Midfielder | 2 | 4 | 7.28 | 26 | 28 |
| L. Suárez | Attacker | 25 | 4 | 7.28 | 29 | 41 |
| Trincão | Midfielder | 6 | 11 | 7.18 | 31 | 80 |
| Pote | Midfielder | 13 | 6 | 7.17 | 24 | 47 |
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Varela | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.40 | 2 | 0 |
| Tiago Silva | Midfielder | 1 | 0 | 7.10 | 4 | 9 |
| J. Castillo | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 6.99 | 15 | 0 |
| Paulo Vitor | Defender | 0 | 0 | 6.90 | 1 | 0 |
| Charles | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 6.87 | 16 | 0 |
Historical Data
In their last ten meetings, Sporting CP has dominated with seven wins, while Guimaraes has won twice. The average goals per match in these encounters is 3.6, with 70% of games seeing over 2.5 goals. Both teams scored in 50% of their recent head-to-head matches. Sporting's previous home encounter against Guimaraes ended in a 4-1 victory, showcasing their attacking prowess. The historical data points to a high-scoring affair, with Sporting CP generally having the upper hand.
Model Output & Recommendation
According to the Poisson model, Sporting CP is heavily favored with an 81% chance of winning, while Guimaraes has an 8% chance. The most likely scoreline is 3-0, aligning with Sporting's xG of 3.12 compared to Guimaraes's 0.71. The model's confidence is rated at 88%, based on data strength and consistency. The odds for Sporting CP to win are 1.23, while the probability for over 2.5 goals is 65%. The data suggests a commanding performance from Sporting CP, supported by their superior goal-scoring ability and defensive record.
Statistical Deep Dive
Sporting CP's recent form indicates a downward trend, with a recent points per game of 0.8 compared to earlier. They have scored an average of 1.85 goals per game in their last 20 matches, with a home average of 2.2 goals scored and 1 conceded. The team's xG is 3.12, suggesting they create numerous scoring opportunities. Guimaraes, on the other hand, has shown improvement, with an average of 1.35 goals scored per game, and a weighted average of 1.46. Their away performance includes an average of 1.11 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per match. Sporting has a 60% rate of games over 2.5 goals, while Guimaraes has 55%. Both teams have a BTTS rate of approximately 50%, indicating the potential for goals on both sides.
