Sporting CPDraw 11%Guimaraes
🏆
Prediction
Sporting CP @ 1.23
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
YES @ 1.55
65% probability
🔁
YES @ 2.05
51% probability
Over 1.5 @ 1.18
With Sporting CP averaging 2.2 goals per home match and Guimaraes conceding an average of 1.89 goals away, the data suggests a high-scoring
game. Additionally, their head-to-heads have seen 70% of matches with over 2.5 goals.
💡 Despite their lower league position, Guimaraes won their last encounter against Sporting CP, highlighting their potential to challenge again.
Final Result
Sporting CP 5 : 1 Guimaraes
Our prediction: 1 ✓
Sporting CP faces Guimaraes at Estádio José Alvalade, Lisboa, in a crucial Primeira Liga clash. Sporting CP, ranked third with 73 points, seeks to solidify their Europa League qualification, while seventh-placed Guimaraes aims to close the gap to European spots. Sporting's recent form shows a slight decline, drawing three of their last five matches, whereas Guimaraes is improving, with three wins in their last five. This matchup promises to be a tightly contested battle.
Avg Scored1.85
Avg Conceded1
Over 2.560%
BTTS50%
Clean Sheets8
Avg Scored1.35
Avg Conceded1.45
Over 2.555%
BTTS55%
Clean Sheets5
🏟️Venue
Estádio José Alvalade, Lisboa
50,466 capacity · Grass
⭐ Sporting CP — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| Gonçalo Inácio | Defender | 1 | 3 | 7.59 | 26 | 18 |
| M. Hjulmand | Midfielder | 2 | 4 | 7.28 | 26 | 28 |
| L. Suárez | Attacker | 25 | 4 | 7.28 | 29 | 41 |
| Trincão | Midfielder | 6 | 11 | 7.18 | 31 | 80 |
| Pote | Midfielder | 13 | 6 | 7.17 | 24 | 47 |
⭐ Guimaraes — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| Bruno Varela | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.40 | 2 | 0 |
| Tiago Silva | Midfielder | 1 | 0 | 7.10 | 4 | 9 |
| J. Castillo | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 6.99 | 15 | 0 |
| Paulo Vitor | Defender | 0 | 0 | 6.90 | 1 | 0 |
| Charles | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 6.87 | 16 | 0 |
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.04
Double Chance X23.95
Double Chance 121.12
Over 1.5 Goals1.18
Under 1.5 Goals4.75
Historical Data
In their last ten meetings, Sporting CP has dominated with seven wins, while Guimaraes has won twice. The average goals per match in these encounters is 3.6, with 70% of games seeing over 2.5 goals. Both teams scored in 50% of their recent head-to-head matches. Sporting's previous home encounter against Guimaraes ended in a 4-1 victory, showcasing their attacking prowess. The historical data points to a high-scoring affair, with Sporting CP generally having the upper hand.
Model Output & Recommendation
According to the Poisson model, Sporting CP is heavily favored with an 81% chance of winning, while Guimaraes has an 8% chance. The most likely scoreline is 3-0, aligning with Sporting's xG of 3.12 compared to Guimaraes's 0.71. The model's confidence is rated at 88%, based on data strength and consistency. The odds for Sporting CP to win are 1.23, while the probability for over 2.5 goals is 65%. The data suggests a commanding performance from Sporting CP, supported by their superior goal-scoring ability and defensive record.
Statistical Deep Dive
Sporting CP's recent form indicates a downward trend, with a recent points per game of 0.8 compared to earlier. They have scored an average of 1.85 goals per game in their last 20 matches, with a home average of 2.2 goals scored and 1 conceded. The team's xG is 3.12, suggesting they create numerous scoring opportunities. Guimaraes, on the other hand, has shown improvement, with an average of 1.35 goals scored per game, and a weighted average of 1.46. Their away performance includes an average of 1.11 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per match. Sporting has a 60% rate of games over 2.5 goals, while Guimaraes has 55%. Both teams have a BTTS rate of approximately 50%, indicating the potential for goals on both sides.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
Who will
win Sporting CP vs Guimaraes?
Sporting CP is predicted to
win with an 81% probability. They have a strong home record, scoring an average of 2.2 goals per
game and maintaining nine clean sheets this season. Conversely, Guimaraes has struggled away, conceding an average of 1.89 goals per match.
2
Will both
teams score in Sporting CP vs Guimaraes?
The BTTS probability is 51%. Sporting has kept eight clean sheets in their last 20 matches, indicating they are more likely to prevent Guimaraes from scoring. The
odds for BTTS 'Yes' are 2.05, while 'No' is priced at 1.7.
3
What is Guimaraes's away form this season?
Guimaraes has won 4, drawn 2, and lost 9 of their away matches, scoring an average of 1.11 goals per
game. Their last five away results include two
wins, one draw, and two losses.
4
Which players are key to watch in Sporting CP vs Guimaraes?
For Sporting CP, L. Suárez stands out with 25 goals and 4 assists, boasting a rating of 7.28. His scoring ability is crucial for Sporting's attack. Guimaraes's top performer is Bruno Varela, a goalkeeper with a rating of 7.40, whose shot-stopping skills could be pivotal in resisting Sporting's offense.
5
Are there injury concerns for Sporting CP vs Guimaraes?
There are no significant injuries reported for either
team. Both squads appear fit, suggesting that the absence of injuries will not impact the match outcome.
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Primeira Liga04.05.2026
