SevillaDraw 26%Real Sociedad
🏆
Prediction
Sevilla @ 2.46
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
YES @ 1.93
57% probability
🔁
YES @ 1.73
61% probability
Over 2.5 @ 1.93
The match is expected to be high-scoring, with Sevilla's defensive vulnerabilities (1.65 goals conceded per
game) and Real Sociedad's strong attacking form (1.95 goals scored per
game) suggesting a likely outcome of over 2.5 goals.
💡 Sevilla's home
games have averaged 2.44 goals per
game, indicating a potential for goals despite their current poor form.
Final Result
Sevilla 1 : 0 Real Sociedad
Our prediction: 1 ✓
Sevilla hosts Real Sociedad at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán in a crucial La Liga clash on May 4, 2026. Sevilla is struggling with relegation concerns, currently ranked 18th with 34 points, while Real Sociedad is contending for a Europa League spot, sitting 8th with 43 points. Sevilla's recent form shows a concerning decline with four losses in their last five games, whereas Real Sociedad displays a more stable performance, with two wins and a draw in their last five outings.
Avg Scored1.05
Avg Conceded1.65
Over 2.545%
BTTS55%
Clean Sheets2
Avg Scored1.95
Avg Conceded1.6
Over 2.570%
BTTS75%
Clean Sheets4
🏟️Venue
Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Sevilla
48,649 capacity · Grass
⭐ Sevilla — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| D. Lukebakio | Midfielder | 1 | 0 | 7.30 | 2 | 9 |
| Rafa Mir | Attacker | 3 | 0 | 7.06 | 5 | 0 |
| Kike Salas | Defender | 1 | 0 | 6.95 | 21 | 5 |
| Andrés Castrín | Defender | 0 | 0 | 6.91 | 15 | 2 |
| Adrià Pedrosa | Defender | 0 | 0 | 6.90 | 1 | 1 |
⭐ Real Sociedad — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| Mikel Oyarzabal | Attacker | 14 | 3 | 7.12 | 29 | 39 |
| T. Kubo | Midfielder | 2 | 4 | 7.11 | 21 | 30 |
| Álex Remiro | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 6.92 | 33 | 3 |
| Brais Méndez | Midfielder | 6 | 2 | 6.91 | 28 | 24 |
| Barrenetxea | Midfielder | 3 | 5 | 6.90 | 27 | 42 |
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.42
Double Chance X21.53
Double Chance 121.25
Over 1.5 Goals1.3
Under 1.5 Goals3.4
Historical Data
In their last 10 meetings, Real Sociedad holds a slight edge with five wins compared to Sevilla's three. The average goals per match stand at 2.3, with 60% of these encounters resulting in over 2.5 goals. Both teams scored in 60% of these fixtures, highlighting the competitive nature of these meetings. The most recent encounter saw Real Sociedad win 2-1, pointing towards a closely contested history.
Model Output & Recommendation
The Poisson model predicts a 44% chance of a Sevilla win, 26% for a draw, and a 30% chance for Real Sociedad to win, with the most likely score being 1-1. The expected goals model suggests Sevilla xG at 1.64 and Real Sociedad xG at 1.15, totaling 2.79. The confidence score of 88% is comprised of data points (31), model strength (13), agreement (10), and consistency (7). Based on these insights, the recommendation leans towards betting on over 2.5 goals, priced at 1.93.
Statistical Deep Dive
Sevilla's recent form is declining, with an average of 0.6 points per game compared to an earlier offset. They average 1.05 goals per match but concede 1.65, suggesting defensive weaknesses. At home, they score and concede an average of 1.22 goals per game. Meanwhile, Real Sociedad averages 1.95 goals per match, conceding 1.6, with their away games seeing 1.7 goals scored and 1.9 conceded. The BTTS rate for Sevilla is 55%, while Real Sociedad's is 75%, indicating both sides' propensity for conceding goals. The model's confidence score of 88% supports these findings, making over 2.5 goals a viable prediction.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
Who will
win Sevilla vs Real Sociedad?
The model predicts a 44% chance of a Sevilla
win. Sevilla's average goals scored at home (1.22) and Real Sociedad's away form (1.7 goals scored per match) make this a tight contest. Real Sociedad's superior overall form (12
wins in the last 20 matches) could give them an advantage.
2
Will both
teams score in Sevilla vs Real Sociedad?
The BTTS probability is 61%, with
odds of 1.73 for Yes. Historical data shows BTTS occurred in 60% of their last 10 meetings. Given Sevilla's defensive record (1.65 goals conceded per
game), both
teams scoring is likely.
3
What is Real Sociedad's away form this season?
Real Sociedad's last five away results are D-L-D-W-L, scoring an average of 1.7 goals per away match while conceding 1.9. They have 3 away
wins this season, highlighting their mixed form on the road.
4
Which players are key to watch in Sevilla vs Real Sociedad?
For Sevilla, Rafa Mir is key, with 3 goals and a rating of 7.06. His ability to find the net could be crucial. Real Sociedad's Mikel Oyarzabal, with 14 goals, 3 assists, and a 7.12 rating, is a potent attacking threat who can influence the
game's outcome.
5
Are there injury concerns for Sevilla vs Real Sociedad?
There are no significant injury concerns reported for either
team, suggesting both squads will be at full strength, potentially impacting the prediction by allowing each side to field their best lineup.
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La Liga04.05.2026
