NewcastleDraw 26%West Ham
🏆
Prediction
Newcastle @ 1.98
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
YES @ 1.48
64% probability
🔁
YES @ 1.42
71% probability
BTTS Yes @ 1.42
Newcastle and West Ham both tend to
score and concede regularly, with Newcastle's home form showing 90% BTTS in their last 20 matches. West Ham's stability in attack, led by J. Bowen, aligns with this trend.
💡 Newcastle's susceptibility to conceding in the second half, coupled with West Ham's ability to find late goals, could be decisive in this matchup.
Final Result
Newcastle 3 : 1 West Ham
Our prediction: 1 ✓
As Newcastle face West Ham at St. James' Park in Newcastle upon Tyne, both sides find themselves in a tactical conundrum. Newcastle's position at 13th in the league is secure, but West Ham, ranked 18th, are battling relegation. The stakes are high for West Ham, who need points to escape the drop, while Newcastle seek to finish the season strongly. This clash presents a fascinating tactical battle between Newcastle's attacking 4-3-3 and West Ham's balanced 4-2-3-1.
Avg Scored1.75
Avg Conceded2.05
Over 2.580%
BTTS90%
Clean Sheets1
Avg Scored1.4
Avg Conceded1.3
Over 2.555%
BTTS55%
Clean Sheets6
🏟️Venue
St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne
52,758 capacity · Grass
⭐ Newcastle — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| Bruno Guimarães | Midfielder | 9 | 5 | 7.48 | 27 | 45 |
| F. Schär | Defender | 0 | 0 | 7.12 | 16 | 4 |
| A. Gordon | Attacker | 6 | 2 | 7.08 | 26 | 26 |
| M. Thiaw | Defender | 4 | 0 | 7.05 | 33 | 6 |
| S. Botman | Defender | 1 | 1 | 7.03 | 23 | 8 |
⭐ West Ham — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| K. Mavropanos | Defender | 3 | 0 | 7.03 | 29 | 4 |
| J. Bowen | Attacker | 8 | 10 | 6.98 | 36 | 43 |
| J. Ward-Prowse | Midfielder | 0 | 0 | 6.90 | 5 | 12 |
| Lucas Paquetá | Attacker | 4 | 1 | 6.89 | 18 | 23 |
| M. Hermansen | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 6.84 | 16 | 1 |
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.3
Double Chance X21.77
Double Chance 121.2
Over 1.5 Goals1.15
Under 1.5 Goals5.25
Match Verdict
Given the tactical dynamics and statistical insights, Newcastle is favored to edge out West Ham, with odds of 1.98 for a home win. Their attacking prowess, particularly at home, combined with West Ham's relegation pressure, suggests a tight contest. Bruno Guimarães' influence in midfield could tip the balance in Newcastle's favor, while West Ham's reliance on J. Bowen for attacking output might not suffice against Newcastle's home form. The model suggests a 50% probability of a Newcastle win, aligning with the odds, making a home victory a viable prediction.
Tactical Breakdown
Newcastle typically employ a 4-3-3 formation, focusing on wide play and quick transitions. Bruno Guimarães, a key figure in midfield, orchestrates the play with his vision and passing accuracy, contributing 9 goals and 5 assists this season. The attacking trio often relies on A. Gordon's pace and creativity on the wings. West Ham counters with a 4-2-3-1, where J. Bowen is pivotal, having scored 8 goals and provided 10 assists. Their double pivot aims to control the midfield defensively, relying on Lucas Paquetá's link-up play. The tactical clash hinges on who controls the midfield, with Newcastle's fluid attacking transitions challenging West Ham's defensive structure.
Statistical Edge
Newcastle's season has been marked by a high-scoring trend, averaging 1.75 goals per game, but they've also conceded 2.05 on average. Their home advantage shows a slight increase in scoring, with 1.78 goals per game. West Ham, meanwhile, have been more defensively solid with 1.3 goals conceded per match. Notably, Newcastle scores more in the first half (32 goals) compared to the second (20 goals), suggesting a strong start. West Ham's ability to maintain compactness has resulted in 6 clean sheets, indicating their potential to frustrate Newcastle's attack. The statistical edge lies in Newcastle's higher scoring rate, especially at home.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
Who will
win Newcastle vs West Ham?
Newcastle is predicted to
win with a 50% probability. This is supported by their higher scoring rate at home (1.78 goals per
game) and West Ham's lower scoring average away (1.11 goals per
game).
2
What are the
odds for Newcastle vs West Ham?
The
odds are Newcastle: 1.98, Draw: 3.8, West Ham: 3.3. This translates to implied probabilities of 50.51% for Newcastle, 26.32% for a draw, and 30.30% for West Ham. Newcastle's
odds represent value compared to the model probability.
3
What is the best
bet for Newcastle vs West Ham?
The best value
bet is BTTS Yes at
odds of 1.42. The model's probability for BTTS is 71%, offering a value edge over the implied probability of 70.42%.
4
What is at stake in Newcastle vs West Ham?
Newcastle are 13th with 46 points, safe from relegation, while West Ham are 18th with 36 points, fighting to avoid relegation. A
win is crucial for West Ham to close the gap to safety.
5
What is the Draw No
Bet option for Newcastle vs West Ham?
Draw No
Bet refunds the stake if the
game ends in a draw. The
odds are Newcastle: 1.50, West Ham: 2.30. Newcastle's
odds provide better value if considering their home advantage.
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Premier League17.05.2026
