Prediction Newcastle vs Brighton | 02.05.2026 | Premier League

Football Predictions

Premier League|02.05.2026

Newcastle

29%

Brighton

44%

29%

27%

44%

NewcastleDraw 27%Brighton

🏆

Prediction

Brighton @ 2.62

⚽

Over 2.5 Goals

YES @ 1.67

59% probability

🔁

Both Teams Score

YES @ 1.55

69% probability

Model Confidence

88%

★ BEST BET

Brighton Win @ 2.62

Brighton arrives in stellar form, unbeaten in their last five, with a solid defensive record on the road. Newcastle's recent downturn, losing four of their last five, suggests Brighton's odds offer value.

💡 Newcastle struggles to maintain leads, often conceding in the second half where they have allowed 18 goals this season, which could be pivotal against Brighton's late-game strength.

St. James' Park in Newcastle upon Tyne buzzes with anticipation as Newcastle faces Brighton. Newcastle, fighting to rise from 14th, needs a win to fend off relegation anxieties. Brighton, eyeing European competition, sits comfortably in 6th. Both teams are set to battle under the clear skies, with the stakes high for contrasting reasons. Fans from both sides fill the air with palpable tension, each hopeful for three crucial points.

📊 Team Statistics

Newcastle

LLLLL

Wins

Draws

Losses

Avg Scored1.6

Avg Conceded2.1

Over 2.575%

BTTS85%

Clean Sheets1

Brighton

WDWWW

Wins

Draws

Losses

Avg Scored1.25

Avg Conceded1

Over 2.545%

BTTS50%

Clean Sheets6

🏟️

Venue

St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne

52,758 capacity · Grass

⭐ Newcastle — Key Players

Player	Pos	G	A	Rating	Apps	KP
Bruno Guimarães	Midfielder	9	4	7.50	25	42
F. Schär	Defender	0	0	7.12	16	4
A. Gordon	Attacker	6	2	7.08	26	26
M. Thiaw	Defender	4	0	7.05	31	6
S. Tonali	Midfielder	0	2	6.97	32	28

⭐ Brighton — Key Players

Player	Pos	G	A	Rating	Apps	KP
J. van Hecke	Defender	3	3	7.36	32	12
B. Verbruggen	Goalkeeper	0	0	7.11	34	1
O. Boscagli	Defender	0	1	7.02	11	3
L. Dunk	Defender	0	0	6.96	29	6
F. Kadıoğlu	Defender	1	0	6.89	33	17

📊 Additional Markets

Double Chance 1X1.48

Double Chance X21.5

Double Chance 121.25

Over 1.5 Goals1.22

Under 1.5 Goals4.2

Verdict

Focus: Newcastle

The Visitors: Brighton

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the correct score prediction for Newcastle vs Brighton?

The model's most likely score is 1-1, but the prediction leans towards a Brighton win. With Newcastle's xG at 1.32 and Brighton's at 1.67, Brighton's superior expected goals suggest they have the edge.

What is the best bet for Newcastle vs Brighton?

The best value bet is a Brighton win at odds of 2.62. The model gives Brighton a 44% probability, which is higher than the implied probability from the odds.

What is Newcastle's recent form?

Newcastle's recent form shows LLLLW, scoring five and conceding 14 in the last five matches. At home, they have 8 wins, averaging 1.44 goals per game, with 3 clean sheets. Their form is declining.

Is Over 1.5 goals a safe bet in Newcastle vs Brighton?

Over 1.5 goals is likely, with a 80% probability from the model. The odds are 1.22. Both teams have seen 2+ goals in a majority of their last 20 matches; Newcastle in 15 matches, Brighton in 9.

Are there injury concerns for Newcastle vs Brighton?

Both squads appear fit with no significant injuries or suspensions reported, allowing both managers to field their strongest teams.