NewcastleDraw 27%Brighton
🏆
Prediction
Brighton @ 2.62
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
YES @ 1.67
59% probability
🔁
YES @ 1.55
69% probability
Brighton arrives in stellar form, unbeaten in their last five, with a solid defensive record on the road. Newcastle's recent downturn, losing four of their last five, suggests Brighton's
odds offer value.
💡 Newcastle struggles to maintain leads, often conceding in the second half where they have allowed 18 goals this season, which could be pivotal against Brighton's late-
game strength.
Final Result
Newcastle 3 : 1 Brighton
Our prediction: 2 ✗
St. James' Park in Newcastle upon Tyne buzzes with anticipation as Newcastle faces Brighton. Newcastle, fighting to rise from 14th, needs a win to fend off relegation anxieties. Brighton, eyeing European competition, sits comfortably in 6th. Both teams are set to battle under the clear skies, with the stakes high for contrasting reasons. Fans from both sides fill the air with palpable tension, each hopeful for three crucial points.
Avg Scored1.6
Avg Conceded2.1
Over 2.575%
BTTS85%
Clean Sheets1
Avg Scored1.25
Avg Conceded1
Over 2.545%
BTTS50%
Clean Sheets6
🏟️Venue
St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne
52,758 capacity · Grass
⭐ Newcastle — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| Bruno Guimarães | Midfielder | 9 | 4 | 7.50 | 25 | 42 |
| F. Schär | Defender | 0 | 0 | 7.12 | 16 | 4 |
| A. Gordon | Attacker | 6 | 2 | 7.08 | 26 | 26 |
| M. Thiaw | Defender | 4 | 0 | 7.05 | 31 | 6 |
| S. Tonali | Midfielder | 0 | 2 | 6.97 | 32 | 28 |
⭐ Brighton — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| J. van Hecke | Defender | 3 | 3 | 7.36 | 32 | 12 |
| B. Verbruggen | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.11 | 34 | 1 |
| O. Boscagli | Defender | 0 | 1 | 7.02 | 11 | 3 |
| L. Dunk | Defender | 0 | 0 | 6.96 | 29 | 6 |
| F. Kadıoğlu | Defender | 1 | 0 | 6.89 | 33 | 17 |
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.48
Double Chance X21.5
Double Chance 121.25
Over 1.5 Goals1.22
Under 1.5 Goals4.2
Verdict
Verdict
Focus: Newcastle
Focus: Newcastle
The Visitors: Brighton
The Visitors: Brighton
Frequently Asked Questions
1
What is the correct
score prediction for Newcastle vs Brighton?
The model's most likely
score is 1-1, but the prediction leans towards a Brighton
win. With Newcastle's xG at 1.32 and Brighton's at 1.67, Brighton's superior expected goals suggest they have the edge.
2
What is the best
bet for Newcastle vs Brighton?
The best value
bet is a Brighton
win at
odds of 2.62. The model gives Brighton a 44% probability, which is higher than the implied probability from the
odds.
3
What is Newcastle's recent form?
Newcastle's recent form shows LLLLW, scoring five and conceding 14 in the last five matches. At home, they have 8
wins, averaging 1.44 goals per
game, with 3 clean sheets. Their form is declining.
4
Is Over 1.5 goals a safe
bet in Newcastle vs Brighton?
Over 1.5 goals is likely, with a 80% probability from the model. The
odds are 1.22. Both
teams have seen 2+ goals in a majority of their last 20 matches; Newcastle in 15 matches, Brighton in 9.
5
Are there injury concerns for Newcastle vs Brighton?
Both squads appear fit with no significant injuries or suspensions reported, allowing both managers to field their strongest
teams.
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Premier League02.05.2026
