Napoli faces Bologna in a crucial Serie A matchup on 11.05.2026. Napoli holds the second position with 70 points, while Bologna sits at ninth with 49 points. The hosts have displayed strong form at home, winning 12 out of 17 matches this season. Bologna’s away performance is less consistent, making this an intriguing contest for Champions League qualification implications.
Prediction Napoli vs Bologna | 11.05.2026 | Serie A
Serie A11.05.2026
Napoli
58%
VS
Bologna
17%
Prediction
Napoli @ 1.54
Over 2.5 Goals
NO @ 1.91
47% probability
★ BEST BET
Over 1.5 @ 1.3
Napoli averages 1.55 goals at home, while Bologna scores 1.38 on the road, suggesting a higher-scoring match. Additionally, the model predicts a total of 2.98 expected goals, supporting the likelihood of at least two goals.
💡 Napoli's defensive stability at home, with an average of only 1 goal conceded per game, contrasts sharply with Bologna's recent decline, as they have been conceding 1.3 goals on average away.
Napoli faces Bologna in a crucial Serie A matchup on 11.05.2026. Napoli holds the second position with 70 points, while Bologna sits at ninth with 49 points. The hosts have displayed strong form at home, winning 12 out of 17 matches this season. Bologna's away performance is less consistent, making this an intriguing contest for Champions League qualification implications.
Team Statistics
⭐ Napoli — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Rrahmani | Defender | 1 | 1 | 7.21 | 18 | 4 |
| B. Gilmour | Midfielder | 1 | 0 | 7.08 | 15 | 6 |
| K. De Bruyne | Midfielder | 5 | 1 | 7.05 | 16 | 31 |
| David Neres | Attacker | 3 | 3 | 7.03 | 16 | 21 |
| L. Spinazzola | Defender | 3 | 3 | 7.03 | 30 | 31 |
⭐ Bologna — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Mário | Midfielder | 1 | 0 | 7.03 | 8 | 3 |
| J. Lucumí | Defender | 1 | 0 | 7.02 | 27 | 6 |
| N. Cambiaghi | Midfielder | 3 | 4 | 6.94 | 28 | 18 |
| R. Freuler | Midfielder | 1 | 2 | 6.91 | 26 | 20 |
| R. Orsolini | Midfielder | 8 | 1 | 6.84 | 33 | 25 |
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.12
Double Chance X22.38
Double Chance 121.2
Over 1.5 Goals1.3
Under 1.5 Goals3.45
Historical Data
In their last 10 encounters, Napoli has won five times, while Bologna has managed two wins. The average goal count stands at 2.5 per match, with only 40% of these games seeing over 2.5 goals. Both teams have scored in just 30% of these encounters. The most recent meeting ended in a 2-0 victory for Napoli, highlighting their relative dominance in this fixture.
Model Output & Recommendation
The Poisson model suggests a Napoli win with a 58% probability, primarily due to their superior xG of 2 compared to Bologna's 0.98. The most likely scoreline is 1-0. The confidence score of 88% reflects strong data support, including Napoli's consistent home performance and Bologna's recent form decline. The odds for a Napoli win are 1.54, while a draw is priced at 3.95, and a Bologna win at 5.9.
Statistical Deep Dive
Napoli's recent form indicates stability, with 28 goals scored and 23 conceded in their last 20 matches. Their home advantage is significant, averaging 1.55 goals scored and only 1 conceded per game. Bologna, on the other hand, has shown a declining trend, scoring just 0.95 goals per match while conceding 1.3. The expected goals model gives Napoli an xG of 2 compared to Bologna's 0.98. Napoli's formation, 3-4-2-1, effectively utilizes key players like K. De Bruyne, who has contributed five goals and one assist. Bologna's formation, 4-2-3-1, relies on players like R. Orsolini, who has scored eight goals this season.
Frequently Asked Questions
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What is Bologna's away form this season?
Bologna's last five away results include losses to Juventus and Aston Villa but wins against Cremonese and Pisa. They average 1.38 goals scored and conceded per away match.
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Which players are key to watch in Napoli vs Bologna?
K. De Bruyne for Napoli, with 5 goals and 1 assist, is crucial for their attacking play. R. Orsolini for Bologna, with 8 goals, is their top scorer and vital for breaking Napoli's defense.
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Are there injury concerns for Napoli vs Bologna?
No significant injuries are reported for either team, suggesting both squads are fit and ready, which should ensure a competitive match.
