Granada CFDraw 17%Sporting Gijon
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
YES
59% probability
Granada's home advantage and their higher expected goals of 2.25 provide a strong edge over Sporting Gijon, who have struggled away, conceding 1.73 goals per match. This statistical disparity provides value in backing Granada.
💡 Granada CF's home scoring rate of 1.7 goals per
game is a key factor, significantly higher than Sporting Gijon's away scoring, suggesting Granada's attacking threat could be decisive.
Final Result
Granada CF 1 : 2 Sporting Gijon
Our prediction: 1 ✗
The match between Granada CF and Sporting Gijon at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes presents an intriguing opportunity for bettors. With Granada looking to leverage their home advantage in Granada, the market positions them as favorites. The home side's recent form has been shaky, but their statistical superiority in expected goals suggests potential value. Sporting Gijon, despite their mid-table standing, have shown inconsistencies, particularly away from home, contributing to an interesting dynamic for value seekers. As the teams face off on the grass surface, bettors should consider the statistical leanings and implied probabilities to identify where the true edge lies.
Avg Scored1.4
Avg Conceded1.4
Over 2.540%
BTTS45%
Clean Sheets6
Avg Scored1.55
Avg Conceded1.3
Over 2.560%
BTTS60%
Clean Sheets4
🏟️Venue
Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Granada
23,156 capacity · Grass
⭐ Granada CF — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| L. Zidane | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.02 | 26 | 4 |
| Manu Lama | Defender | 3 | 1 | 6.99 | 32 | 6 |
| Sergio Ruiz | Midfielder | 0 | 2 | 6.88 | 32 | 23 |
| Loïc Williams | Defender | 0 | 0 | 6.86 | 35 | 10 |
| M. Hongla | Midfielder | 1 | 0 | 6.80 | 4 | 2 |
⭐ Sporting Gijon — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| Jonathan Dubasin | Midfielder | 16 | 3 | 7.09 | 35 | 26 |
| J. Otero | Attacker | 13 | 12 | 7.09 | 33 | 31 |
| Pablo Vázquez | Defender | 3 | 1 | 7.03 | 35 | 8 |
| César Gelabert | Midfielder | 8 | 3 | 7.01 | 39 | 77 |
| Álex Corredera | Midfielder | 1 | 2 | 6.99 | 37 | 51 |
Form & Key Players
Granada CF's recent form reflects a decline, with 3 losses in their last 5 matches, scoring only once in their last two outings. Despite this, key players like L. Zidane in goal and Manu Lama in defense provide stability. Sporting Gijon's form is not much better, with 3 losses in their last 5 matches, but Jonathan Dubasin stands out with 16 goals this season. J. Otero's contributions of 13 goals and 12 assists are crucial for their attack. Despite the form dip, Granada's home form and the threat from players like Sergio Ruiz, who has been a creative force, offer value in betting markets.
Match Prediction
Given the statistical analysis, Granada CF is favored to win, priced at 1.72. The prediction is supported by their higher xG of 2.25 compared to Sporting Gijon's 1.11, indicating a stronger offensive capability. Sporting Gijon's away form, with a higher goals conceded rate, further tilts the balance in Granada's favor. The combination of home advantage and key player performances makes a strong case for backing Granada, despite their recent inconsistent form. Bettors should weigh the implied probabilities against market odds to find potential value in this fixture.
Home Ground Advantage
Granada CF's home ground, Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, offers a distinct advantage reflected in their home performance metrics. With a home record of 6 wins, 8 draws, and 6 losses, Granada scores an average of 1.7 goals per game at home compared to 1.2 overall, indicating a stronger attacking presence on familiar turf. The defensive metrics also show a slight advantage, conceding 1.4 goals per home game. This translates into a more favorable setup for Granada, who also maintain a 30% clean sheet rate at home. These statistics suggest that betting markets might undervalue Granada's home edge, providing a potential betting edge.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
Who will
win Granada CF vs Sporting Gijon?
Granada CF is predicted to
win with a 58% probability. Their home scoring rate of 1.7 goals per
game and a stronger expected goals metric of 2.25 compared to Sporting Gijon's 1.11 provide a statistical edge.
2
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Granada CF vs Sporting Gijon?
Yes, the probability for over 2.5 goals is 59%, with both
teams having a history of high-scoring encounters (70% of H2H meetings). The
odds for over 2.5 goals are priced at 1.70.
3
What is Granada CF's recent form?
Granada CF's last 5 results are LLWLL, scoring 3 goals and conceding 9. At home, they have 6
wins, scoring 1.7 goals per
game with 30% clean sheets. Their form is currently declining.
4
What is Sporting Gijon's away form this season?
Sporting Gijon's last 5 away results are LWLLL, scoring 5 goals and conceding 10. They have 6 away
wins this season, averaging 1.27 goals scored per away match.
5
What does the head-to-head record say about Granada CF vs Sporting Gijon?
In the last 10 meetings, Sporting Gijon has won 6 times, with Granada
winning 4. The average goals per match is 2.8, with 70% of these meetings going over 2.5 goals, indicating a historically high-scoring fixture.
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Segunda División30.05.2026
