⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
YES @ 1.62
63% probability
🔁
YES @ 1.53
61% probability
Fulham's home form, scoring 1.4 goals per
game and conceding just 1, suggests a tactical edge at Craven Cottage. The model's 49% probability for a Fulham
win surpasses the implied probability of 35.21% from the market
odds, indicating value.
💡 Fulham's ability to maintain a lower goals conceded rate at home compared to their overall average could be crucial in a tight match against Newcastle.
Final Result
Fulham 2 : 0 Newcastle
Our prediction: 1 ✓
As Fulham and Newcastle face off at Craven Cottage, the spotlight is on the value perceived in the betting markets. With both teams equal on points, the emphasis is on Fulham's home advantage and Newcastle's vulnerability away. The market odds suggest a tight contest, but Fulham's home performance metrics provide a compelling case for value betting. This encounter not only tests the teams' end-of-season resolve but also offers potential betting edges for those eyeing the numbers closely.
Avg Scored1.1
Avg Conceded1.25
Over 2.555%
BTTS50%
Clean Sheets3
Avg Scored1.85
Avg Conceded1.9
Over 2.580%
BTTS90%
Clean Sheets1
🏟️Venue
Craven Cottage, London
29,589 capacity · Grass
⭐ Fulham — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| H. Wilson | Midfielder | 10 | 6 | 7.12 | 35 | 38 |
| A. Iwobi | Midfielder | 4 | 3 | 7.05 | 28 | 40 |
| J. Andersen | Defender | 0 | 1 | 7.04 | 33 | 7 |
| K. Tete | Defender | 1 | 0 | 6.93 | 22 | 11 |
| B. Leno | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 6.92 | 37 | 0 |
⭐ Newcastle — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| Bruno Guimarães | Midfielder | 9 | 5 | 7.50 | 28 | 46 |
| F. Schär | Defender | 0 | 0 | 7.12 | 16 | 4 |
| A. Gordon | Attacker | 6 | 2 | 7.08 | 26 | 26 |
| M. Thiaw | Defender | 4 | 0 | 7.06 | 34 | 6 |
| S. Botman | Defender | 1 | 1 | 7.04 | 24 | 8 |
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.62
Double Chance X21.4
Double Chance 121.22
Over 1.5 Goals1.2
Under 1.5 Goals4.33
Form & Key Players
Fulham's recent form shows inconsistency, with the last five results as DLLWD. However, at home, they have been more reliable, influenced by key players like Harry Wilson, who has 10 goals and 6 assists this season. For Newcastle, Bruno Guimarães stands out with 9 goals and 5 assists, but Newcastle's away form is shaky, with a recent WDWLL record. Newcastle averages 1.8 goals scored but also concedes an average of 1.9 per away game, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. This form analysis underscores Fulham's home advantage and Newcastle's reliance on individual brilliance in attack.
Match Prediction
Considering the venue and player dynamics, Fulham holds an edge. The market odds of 2.84 for a Fulham win offer value given their home form and Newcastle's defensive frailties on the road. With Fulham's xG of 1.92 against Newcastle's 1.04, expect a match shaped by Fulham's ability to capitalize on home advantage. The prediction leans towards a Fulham win, aligned with the model's 49% win probability, offering a strategic betting opportunity.
Home Ground Advantage
Craven Cottage in London provides Fulham with a distinct home advantage, statistically evident in their home record of 10 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses. Fulham averages 1.4 goals scored and 1 goal conceded per home game, which is more favorable compared to their overall defensive record. The grass surface complements their tactical setup, allowing creative players like Harry Wilson to exploit space effectively. With 5 clean sheets at home, Fulham's defensive solidity is better at home than away. These statistics suggest a stronger Fulham performance when playing in London, aligning with the market's implied probabilities for a potential home win.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
Who will
win Fulham vs Newcastle?
The predicted winner is Fulham with a 49% probability. Fulham's home record of scoring 1.4 goals per
game and conceding just 1 supports this prediction, alongside their better defensive stats at home compared to Newcastle's away form.
2
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Fulham vs Newcastle?
Yes, the probability for over 2.5 goals is 63%, supported by Fulham's and Newcastle's recent scoring trends. With the over 2.5 goals
odds priced at 1.62, the statistical likelihood and market
odds align for a likely high-scoring match.
3
What is Fulham's recent form?
Fulham's last five results are DLLWD, scoring 5 and conceding 5. At home, they have 10
wins, averaging 1.4 goals scored and maintaining 5 clean sheets, though their recent form shows a declining trend.
4
What is Newcastle's away form this season?
Newcastle's away form includes WDWLL in their last five matches. They have won 4 away
games this season, scoring an average of 1.8 goals per match but conceding 1.9, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.
5
What does the head-to-head record say about Fulham vs Newcastle?
In the last 10 meetings, Newcastle has dominated with 8
wins to Fulham's 2. The average goals per meeting is 2.7, with 60% of matches seeing over 2.5 goals, reflecting Newcastle's recent upper hand in these encounters.
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Premier League24.05.2026
