EspanyolDraw 29%Athletic Club
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
NO @ 2
45% probability
🔁
NO @ 1.77
48% probability
Espanyol's expected goals (xG) of 1.51 surpass Athletic Club's 0.97, indicating stronger attacking potential. With a confidence
score of 62%, the model favors Espanyol's home performance, where they have secured 6
wins this season.
💡 Espanyol's higher expected goals suggest a more potent attack, particularly at home, where they average 1.1 goals per
game, compared to Athletic Club's away average of 1.2 goals conceded.
Final Result
Espanyol 2 : 0 Athletic Club
Our prediction: 1 ✓
Espanyol faces Athletic Club in an intriguing La Liga clash on May 13, 2026. The match is set to take place at an undisclosed venue, with both teams looking to capitalize on their seasonal strengths. Espanyol's home form has been a mixed bag, with 6 wins and 7 losses, while Athletic Club's away record shows vulnerability with 10 losses. This match presents an opportunity for Espanyol to exploit their attacking edge, as indicated by their expected goals of 1.51 compared to Athletic Club’s 0.97.
Avg Scored–
Avg Conceded–
Over 2.50%
BTTS0%
Clean Sheets0
Avg Scored–
Avg Conceded–
Over 2.50%
BTTS0%
Clean Sheets0
⭐ Espanyol — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| M. Dmitrović | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.13 | 34 | 1 |
| Edu Expósito | Midfielder | 1 | 6 | 7.07 | 32 | 73 |
| Carlos Romero | Defender | 5 | 2 | 6.95 | 32 | 24 |
| Fernando Calero | Defender | 0 | 0 | 6.88 | 25 | 3 |
| Miguel Rubio | Defender | 1 | 0 | 6.83 | 12 | 0 |
⭐ Athletic Club — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| Ruíz de Galarreta | Midfielder | 1 | 2 | 7.00 | 31 | 24 |
| Yuri | Defender | 0 | 5 | 6.98 | 30 | 27 |
| Nico Williams | Midfielder | 6 | 3 | 6.97 | 24 | 34 |
| Unai Simón | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 6.90 | 34 | 1 |
| Aitor Paredes | Defender | 2 | 0 | 6.83 | 18 | 4 |
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.6
Double Chance X21.36
Double Chance 121.25
Over 1.5 Goals1.33
Under 1.5 Goals3.25
Historical Data
No direct head-to-head data is available for this match. However, Espanyol's home games have averaged 1.1 goals for and 1.5 against, while Athletic Club's away matches have averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Historically, Espanyol's home performance suggests a competitive edge, especially against teams with similar defensive records. The likelihood of both teams scoring is 48%, indicating a balanced encounter with potential scoring opportunities.
Model Output & Recommendation
The Poisson model predicts a 48% chance of an Espanyol victory, with the most likely scoreline being 1-0. The model’s confidence score is 62%, derived from data consistency and strength, despite a lack of recent form data. The odds for an Espanyol win are 3.00, reflecting their home advantage and superior xG. The model suggests avoiding over/under bets due to moderate probabilities and instead focusing on Espanyol's potential win, given their historical home performance and goal-scoring capabilities.
Statistical Deep Dive
Espanyol's expected goals (xG) of 1.51 suggest a stronger offensive performance compared to Athletic Club's 0.97. Both teams employ a 4-2-3-1 formation, but Espanyol's 18 home goals this season indicate a potential home advantage. Athletic Club's away form has seen them concede 1.5 goals per match on average, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. The probability of over 2.5 goals occurring is 45%, while the chance of both teams scoring is set at 48%. Espanyol's clean sheet rate at home is 21%, with Athletic Club failing to score in 41% of their away matches. The model's confidence in an Espanyol win is bolstered by their higher xG and home goal-scoring history.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
Who will
win Espanyol vs Athletic Club?
The model predicts Espanyol to
win with a 48% probability. Espanyol's home goal average of 1.1 and a higher xG of 1.51 compared to Athletic Club's 0.97 support this prediction. Additionally, Athletic Club's away form, with 10 losses, suggests vulnerability.
2
Will both
teams score in Espanyol vs Athletic Club?
The likelihood of both
teams scoring is 48%. Espanyol has a home clean sheet rate of 21%, while Athletic Club has failed to
score in 41% of their away
games. The
odds for BTTS Yes are 1.77, indicating a moderate chance.
3
What is Athletic Club's away form this season?
Athletic Club's recent away form includes several defeats, with 4
wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses overall. They have scored 19 goals away, averaging 1.2 goals per match, but have conceded 1.5 goals on average, highlighting defensive weaknesses.
4
Which players are key to watch in Espanyol vs Athletic Club?
Edu Expósito of Espanyol and Nico Williams of Athletic Club are key players. Expósito has 1 goal and 6 assists with a rating of 7.07, while Williams has 6 goals and 3 assists, rated at 6.97. Both players are pivotal in driving their
team's offensive play.
5
Are there injury concerns for Espanyol vs Athletic Club?
Both squads appear fit with no significant injuries reported. This full availability might enhance the competitive nature of the match, allowing both
teams to field their strongest line-ups.
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La Liga13.05.2026
