⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
NO @ 1.91
47% probability
🔁
NO @ 1.95
45% probability
Over 1.5 @ 1.3
Napoli averages 1.55 goals at home, while Bologna scores 1.38 on the road, suggesting a higher-scoring match. Additionally, the model predicts a total of 2.98 expected goals, supporting the likelihood of at least two goals.
💡 Napoli's defensive stability at home, with an average of only 1 goal conceded per
game, contrasts sharply with Bologna's recent decline, as they have been conceding 1.3 goals on average away.
Final Result
Napoli 2 : 3 Bologna
Our prediction: 1 ✗
Napoli faces Bologna in a crucial Serie A matchup on 11.05.2026. Napoli holds the second position with 70 points, while Bologna sits at ninth with 49 points. The hosts have displayed strong form at home, winning 12 out of 17 matches this season. Bologna's away performance is less consistent, making this an intriguing contest for Champions League qualification implications.
Avg Scored1.4
Avg Conceded1.15
Over 2.555%
BTTS60%
Clean Sheets6
Avg Scored0.95
Avg Conceded1.3
Over 2.535%
BTTS35%
Clean Sheets7
⭐ Napoli — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| Amir Rrahmani | Defender | 1 | 1 | 7.21 | 18 | 4 |
| B. Gilmour | Midfielder | 1 | 0 | 7.08 | 15 | 6 |
| K. De Bruyne | Midfielder | 5 | 1 | 7.05 | 16 | 31 |
| David Neres | Attacker | 3 | 3 | 7.03 | 16 | 21 |
| L. Spinazzola | Defender | 3 | 3 | 7.03 | 30 | 31 |
⭐ Bologna — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| João Mário | Midfielder | 1 | 0 | 7.03 | 8 | 3 |
| J. Lucumí | Defender | 1 | 0 | 7.02 | 27 | 6 |
| N. Cambiaghi | Midfielder | 3 | 4 | 6.94 | 28 | 18 |
| R. Freuler | Midfielder | 1 | 2 | 6.91 | 26 | 20 |
| R. Orsolini | Midfielder | 8 | 1 | 6.84 | 33 | 25 |
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.12
Double Chance X22.38
Double Chance 121.2
Over 1.5 Goals1.3
Under 1.5 Goals3.45
Historical Data
In their last 10 encounters, Napoli has won five times, while Bologna has managed two wins. The average goal count stands at 2.5 per match, with only 40% of these games seeing over 2.5 goals. Both teams have scored in just 30% of these encounters. The most recent meeting ended in a 2-0 victory for Napoli, highlighting their relative dominance in this fixture.
Model Output & Recommendation
The Poisson model suggests a Napoli win with a 58% probability, primarily due to their superior xG of 2 compared to Bologna's 0.98. The most likely scoreline is 1-0. The confidence score of 88% reflects strong data support, including Napoli's consistent home performance and Bologna's recent form decline. The odds for a Napoli win are 1.54, while a draw is priced at 3.95, and a Bologna win at 5.9.
Statistical Deep Dive
Napoli's recent form indicates stability, with 28 goals scored and 23 conceded in their last 20 matches. Their home advantage is significant, averaging 1.55 goals scored and only 1 conceded per game. Bologna, on the other hand, has shown a declining trend, scoring just 0.95 goals per match while conceding 1.3. The expected goals model gives Napoli an xG of 2 compared to Bologna's 0.98. Napoli's formation, 3-4-2-1, effectively utilizes key players like K. De Bruyne, who has contributed five goals and one assist. Bologna's formation, 4-2-3-1, relies on players like R. Orsolini, who has scored eight goals this season.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
Who will
win Napoli vs Bologna?
Napoli is predicted to
win with a 58% probability. Their home form, with 12
wins this season, and Bologna's declining trend, conceding 1.3 goals on average, are key factors.
2
The BTTS probability is 45%. The
odds for BTTS Yes are 1.95 and No at 1.8. Napoli's home defense, with 6 clean sheets, suggests Bologna may struggle to
score.
3
What is Bologna's away form this season?
Bologna's last five away results include losses to Juventus and Aston Villa but
wins against Cremonese and Pisa. They average 1.38 goals scored and conceded per away match.
4
Which players are key to watch in Napoli vs Bologna?
K. De Bruyne for Napoli, with 5 goals and 1 assist, is crucial for their attacking play. R. Orsolini for Bologna, with 8 goals, is their top scorer and vital for breaking Napoli's defense.
5
Are there injury concerns for Napoli vs Bologna?
No significant injuries are reported for either
team, suggesting both squads are fit and ready, which should ensure a competitive match.
*,.fap-wrap *,.fap-markets *,.fap-table *,.fap-faq * {box-sizing:border-box}
/* ── Wrapper ── */
.fap-wrap {
width:100%;max-width:100%;
margin:0 0 28px;border-radius:16px;overflow:hidden;
border:1px solid #e2e8f0;
box-shadow:0 4px 24px rgba(0,0,0,.08);
font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;
background:#fff;
}
/* ── Meta bar ── */
.fap-meta-bar {
display:flex;align-items:center;gap:8px;flex-wrap:wrap;
padding:10px 20px;background:#f8fafc;
border-bottom:1px solid #e2e8f0;
font-size:12px;color:#64748b;
}
.fap-flag{height:16px;border-radius:2px}
.fap-league-logo{height:22px;object-fit:contain}
.fap-league-name{font-weight:700;color:#334155}
.fap-meta-sep{color:#cbd5e1}
.fap-match-date{color:#94a3b8}
/* ── Header ── */
.fap-header {
display:grid;grid-template-columns:1fr auto 1fr;
align-items:center;gap:16px;
padding:28px 24px 20px;
background:linear-gradient(135deg,#f0f9ff 0%,#fff 50%,#fff5f5 100%);
}
.fap-
team{display:flex;flex-direction:column;align-items:center;gap:10px}
.fap-
team-home{align-items:flex-start}
.fap-
team-away{align-items:flex-end}
.fap-logo-wrap {
width:80px;height:80px;border-radius:50%;
background:#fff;border:2px solid #e2e8f0;
box-shadow:0 2px 12px rgba(0,0,0,.1);
display:flex;align-items:center;justify-content:center;
overflow:hidden;flex-shrink:0;
}
.fap-
team-logo{width:64px;height:64px;object-fit:contain}
.fap-logo-placeholder{font-size:28px;font-weight:900;color:#94a3b8}
.fap-
team-name{font-size:17px;font-weight:800;color:#1e293b;text-align:center;line-height:1.2}
.fap-
team-home .fap-
team-name{text-align:left}
.fap-
team-away .fap-
team-name{text-align:right}
.fap-
team-prob{font-size:13px;font-weight:700;padding:4px 12px;border-radius:20px}
.fap-prob-home{background:#dbeafe;color:#1d4ed8}
.fap-prob-away{background:#fee2e2;color:#b91c1c}
.fap-vs-block{display:flex;flex-direction:column;align-items:center;justify-content:center}
.fap-vs{font-size:20px;font-weight:900;color:#94a3b8;letter-spacing:2px}
/* ── Prob bar ── */
.fap-prob-bar-wrap{padding:0 0 4px}
.fap-prob-bar{display:flex;height:40px;overflow:hidden}
.fap-pb-home,.fap-pb-draw,.fap-pb-away {
display:flex;align-items:center;justify-content:center;
font-size:13px;font-weight:700;color:#fff;min-width:36px;
}
.fap-pb-home{background:#2563eb}
.fap-pb-draw{background:#64748b}
.fap-pb-away{background:#dc2626}
.fap-pb-labels {
display:flex;justify-content:space-between;
padding:6px 16px;font-size:11px;color:#64748b;font-weight:600;
background:#f8fafc;border-top:1px solid #e2e8f0;border-bottom:1px solid #e2e8f0;
}
/* ── Markets grid ── */
.fap-markets {
display:grid;grid-template-columns:repeat(3,1fr);
gap:1px;background:#e2e8f0;
border-top:1px solid #e2e8f0;border-bottom:1px solid #e2e8f0;
}
.fap-market {
background:#fff;padding:16px 14px;
display:flex;flex-direction:column;align-items:center;
text-align:center;gap:4px;border-top:3px solid transparent;
}
.fap-market-pred{border-top-color:#2563eb}
.fap-market-yes{border-top-color:#16a34a;background:#f0fdf4}
.fap-market-no{border-top-color:#dc2626;background:#fef2f2}
.fap-mkt-icon{font-size:22px;line-height:1;margin-bottom:2px}
.fap-mkt-label{font-size:10px;font-weight:700;text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.8px;color:#94a3b8}
.fap-mkt-val{font-size:17px;font-weight:800;color:#1e293b;line-height:1.2}
.fap-mkt-pct{font-size:11px;color:#64748b;margin-top:2px}
.fap-odd{font-size:14px;font-weight:700;color:#16a34a;display:block;margin-top:2px}
/* ── Best
bet ── */
.fap-bestbet {
background:linear-gradient(135deg,#1e293b 0%,#0f172a 100%);
padding:20px 24px;color:#fff;
}
.fap-bb-star{font-size:11px;font-weight:700;letter-spacing:1.5px;color:#fbbf24;text-transform:uppercase;margin-bottom:6px}
.fap-bb-pick{font-size:22px;font-weight:900;color:#fff;margin-bottom:6px;line-height:1.2}
.fap-bb-reason{font-size:13px;color:#94a3b8;line-height:1.6}
.fap-insight{padding:14px 20px;background:#fffbeb;border-left:4px solid #f59e0b;font-size:14px;color:#92400e;line-height:1.6}
/* ── Stats section ── */
.fap-stats-section {
margin:0 0 28px;
font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;
}
.fap-stats-title {
display:flex;align-items:center;gap:8px;
font-size:15px;font-weight:800;color:#1e293b;
padding:14px 20px 12px;
border-bottom:2px solid #e2e8f0;
background:#fff;
border-radius:14px 14px 0 0;
border:1px solid #e2e8f0;
border-bottom:2px solid #e2e8f0;
margin-bottom:-1px;
}
.fap-stats-title-icon{font-size:18px}
.fap-stat-cards{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:0}
/* ── Individual stat card ── */
.fap-sc {
border:1px solid #e2e8f0;
border-top:none;
background:#fff;
overflow:hidden;
}
.fap-sc:last-child{border-radius:0 0 14px 14px}
.fap-sc-home{border-left:4px solid #2563eb}
.fap-sc-away{border-left:4px solid #dc2626}
/* ── Card header ── */
.fap-sc-head {
display:flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;
padding:14px 16px 10px;
background:#fafbfd;
border-bottom:1px solid #f1f5f9;
}
.fap-sc-logo {
width:40px;height:40px;
object-fit:contain;border-radius:50%;
background:#fff;border:1px solid #e2e8f0;
padding:3px;flex-shrink:0;
}
.fap-sc-name{font-size:15px;font-weight:800;color:#1e293b;margin-bottom:5px}
.fap-sc-form{display:flex;gap:3px;flex-wrap:wrap}
/* ── W/D/L row ── */
.fap-sc-wdl {
display:flex;align-items:stretch;
border-bottom:1px solid #f1f5f9;
}
.fap-sc-wdl-item {
flex:1;display:flex;flex-direction:column;
align-items:center;justify-content:center;
padding:12px 8px;gap:3px;
}
.fap-sc-wdl-sep{width:1px;background:#f1f5f9;flex-shrink:0}
.fap-sc-big{font-size:24px;font-weight:900;line-height:1}
.fap-sc-tiny{font-size:10px;font-weight:700;text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.6px;color:#94a3b8}
.fap-c-green{color:#16a34a}
.fap-c-amber{color:#d97706}
.fap-c-red{color:#dc2626}
/* ── Stats rows ── */
.fap-sc-rows{display:flex;flex-direction:column}
.fap-sc-row {
display:flex;align-items:center;
justify-content:space-between;
padding:9px 16px;
border-bottom:1px solid #f8fafc;
}
.fap-sc-row:last-child{border-bottom:none}
.fap-sc-row:nth-child(even){background:#fafbfd}
.fap-sc-row-lbl{font-size:12px;font-weight:600;color:#64748b;text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.4px}
.fap-sc-row-val{font-size:14px;font-weight:800;color:#1e293b}
/* ── Form badges ── */
/* ── Form badges ── */
.fap-form-row{display:inline-flex;gap:3px;flex-wrap:nowrap}
.fap-fb {
display:inline-flex;align-items:center;justify-content:center;
width:24px;height:24px;border-radius:50%;
font-size:10px;font-weight:800;color:#fff;flex-shrink:0;
}
.fap-fb-w{background:#16a34a}
.fap-fb-d{background:#d97706}
.fap-fb-l{background:#dc2626}
/* ── Mobile stat cards (hidden by default) ── */
.fap-stat-cards{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:14px}
.fap-stat-card{border-radius:12px;overflow:hidden;border:1px solid #e2e8f0;background:#fff}
.fap-stat-card-home{border-top:3px solid #2563eb}
.fap-stat-card-away{border-top:3px solid #dc2626}
/* ── Confidence bar ── */
.fap-conf-bar {
display:flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;
padding:12px 20px;
background:#f8fafc;border-top:1px solid #e2e8f0;
}
.fap-conf-label {
font-size:11px;font-weight:700;text-transform:uppercase;
letter-spacing:.7px;color:#64748b;white-space:nowrap;min-width:130px;
}
.fap-conf-track {
flex:1;height:8px;background:#e2e8f0;
border-radius:4px;overflow:hidden;
}
.fap-conf-fill {
height:100%;border-radius:4px;
transition:width .4s ease;
}
.fap-conf-pct {
font-size:16px;font-weight:900;
min-width:48px;text-align:right;
}
/* ── FAQ ── */
.fap-faq{margin:0 0 24px}
.fap-faq-item {
display:grid;grid-template-columns:auto 1fr;gap:0;
border:1px solid #e2e8f0;border-radius:12px;
overflow:hidden;margin-bottom:10px;
transition:box-shadow .15s;
}
.fap-faq-item:hover{box-shadow:0 4px 16px rgba(0,0,0,.08)}
.fap-faq-num {
display:flex;align-items:flex-start;justify-content:center;
padding:18px 16px;
background:#f0f9ff;
border-right:1px solid #e2e8f0;
font-size:18px;font-weight:900;color:#2563eb;
min-width:52px;
line-height:1.4;
}
.fap-faq-content{padding:16px 20px}
.fap-faq-q{font-size:15px;font-weight:700;color:#1e293b;margin-bottom:8px;line-height:1.4}
.fap-faq-a{font-size:14px;color:#475569;line-height:1.7}
/* ── v15: Info row (venue + coaches) ── */
.fap-info-row{display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:12px;margin:0 0 24px}
.fap-info-card{display:flex;align-items:flex-start;gap:12px;background:#f8fafc;border:1px solid #e2e8f0;border-radius:12px;padding:14px 16px;flex:1;min-width:180px}
.fap-info-icon{font-size:22px;line-height:1;flex-shrink:0}
.fap-info-body{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}
.fap-info-label{font-size:10px;font-weight:700;text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.06em;color:#94a3b8}
.fap-info-val{font-size:14px;font-weight:700;color:#1e293b}
.fap-info-sub{font-size:12px;color:#64748b}
/* ── v15: Key Players ── */
.fap-players-wrap{display:grid;grid-template-columns:1fr 1fr;gap:20px;margin:0 0 28px}
.fap-players-
team{background:#fff;border:1px solid #e2e8f0;border-radius:12px;overflow:hidden}
.fap-players-title{background:#1e293b;color:#fff;font-size:12px;font-weight:700;text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.05em;padding:10px 14px}
.fap-players-table{width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:12px}
.fap-players-table th{background:#f1f5f9;color:#64748b;font-size:10px;font-weight:700;text-transform:uppercase;padding:7px 10px;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e2e8f0}
.fap-players-table td{padding:8px 10px;border-bottom:1px solid #f1f5f9;color:#334155}
.fap-players-table tr:last-child td{border-bottom:none}
.fap-players-table tr:hover td{background:#f8fafc}
.fap-rating{font-weight:700;color:#16a34a}
/* ── v15: Extended
odds ── */
.fap-ext-
odds{background:#f8fafc;border:1px solid #e2e8f0;border-radius:12px;padding:16px 18px;margin:0 0 24px}
.fap-ext-
odds-title{font-size:12px;font-weight:700;text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.06em;color:#64748b;margin-bottom:12px}
.fap-ext-
odds-grid{display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:10px}
.fap-ext-odd-item{display:flex;flex-direction:column;align-items:center;background:#fff;border:1px solid #e2e8f0;border-radius:8px;padding:10px 14px;min-width:110px;text-align:center}
.fap-ext-label{font-size:10px;color:#64748b;font-weight:600;margin-bottom:4px;text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.04em}
.fap-ext-val{font-size:18px;font-weight:800;color:#0f172a}
@media(max-width:640px){
.fap-players-wrap{grid-template-columns:1fr}
.fap-info-row{flex-direction:column}
.fap-ext-
odds-grid{gap:8px}
.fap-ext-odd-item{min-width:90px;padding:8px 10px}
}
/* ── Mobile breakpoint ── */
@media (max-width:640px) {
.fap-header{grid-template-columns:1fr;padding:20px 16px 16px;gap:12px}
.fap-
team-home,.fap-
team-away{align-items:center}
.fap-
team-home .fap-
team-name,.fap-
team-away .fap-
team-name{text-align:center}
.fap-vs-block{order:-1;flex-direction:row;gap:12px}
.fap-logo-wrap{width:64px;height:64px}
.fap-
team-logo{width:50px;height:50px}
.fap-
team-name{font-size:15px}
.fap-markets{grid-template-columns:repeat(2,1fr)}
.fap-pb-home,.fap-pb-draw,.fap-pb-away{font-size:11px;min-width:28px}
.fap-pb-labels{font-size:10px;padding:5px 12px}
.fap-meta-bar{padding:8px 14px;font-size:11px}
.fap-bb-pick{font-size:18px}
.fap-faq-num{min-width:40px;padding:14px 12px;font-size:15px}
.fap-faq-content{padding:14px 14px}
.fap-faq-q{font-size:14px}
.fap-wrap,.fap-stats-wrap{border-radius:12px}
}
@media (max-width:380px) {
.fap-mkt-val{font-size:14px}
.fap-mkt-label{font-size:9px}
.fap-market{padding:12px 8px}
.fap-sc-val{font-size:16px}
}
Serie A11.05.2026
