La Liga04.05.2026
Sevilla hosts Real Sociedad at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán in a crucial La Liga clash on May 4, 2026. Sevilla is struggling with relegation concerns, currently ranked 18th with 34 points, while Real Sociedad is contending for a Europa League spot, sitting 8th with 43 points. Sevilla's recent form shows a concerning decline with four losses in their last five games, whereas Real Sociedad displays a more stable performance, with two wins and a draw in their last five outings.
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Lukebakio | Midfielder | 1 | 0 | 7.30 | 2 | 9 |
| Rafa Mir | Attacker | 3 | 0 | 7.06 | 5 | 0 |
| Kike Salas | Defender | 1 | 0 | 6.95 | 21 | 5 |
| Andrés Castrín | Defender | 0 | 0 | 6.91 | 15 | 2 |
| Adrià Pedrosa | Defender | 0 | 0 | 6.90 | 1 | 1 |
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Oyarzabal | Attacker | 14 | 3 | 7.12 | 29 | 39 |
| T. Kubo | Midfielder | 2 | 4 | 7.11 | 21 | 30 |
| Álex Remiro | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 6.92 | 33 | 3 |
| Brais Méndez | Midfielder | 6 | 2 | 6.91 | 28 | 24 |
| Barrenetxea | Midfielder | 3 | 5 | 6.90 | 27 | 42 |
Historical Data
In their last 10 meetings, Real Sociedad holds a slight edge with five wins compared to Sevilla's three. The average goals per match stand at 2.3, with 60% of these encounters resulting in over 2.5 goals. Both teams scored in 60% of these fixtures, highlighting the competitive nature of these meetings. The most recent encounter saw Real Sociedad win 2-1, pointing towards a closely contested history.
Model Output & Recommendation
The Poisson model predicts a 44% chance of a Sevilla win, 26% for a draw, and a 30% chance for Real Sociedad to win, with the most likely score being 1-1. The expected goals model suggests Sevilla xG at 1.64 and Real Sociedad xG at 1.15, totaling 2.79. The confidence score of 88% is comprised of data points (31), model strength (13), agreement (10), and consistency (7). Based on these insights, the recommendation leans towards betting on over 2.5 goals, priced at 1.93.
Statistical Deep Dive
Sevilla's recent form is declining, with an average of 0.6 points per game compared to an earlier offset. They average 1.05 goals per match but concede 1.65, suggesting defensive weaknesses. At home, they score and concede an average of 1.22 goals per game. Meanwhile, Real Sociedad averages 1.95 goals per match, conceding 1.6, with their away games seeing 1.7 goals scored and 1.9 conceded. The BTTS rate for Sevilla is 55%, while Real Sociedad's is 75%, indicating both sides' propensity for conceding goals. The model's confidence score of 88% supports these findings, making over 2.5 goals a viable prediction.
