In the heart of Poland, Raków Częstochowa will attempt to break their winless streak against Motor Lublin. Sitting at the bottom of the Ekstraklasa table with zero points from five matches, Raków are desperate for a win to kickstart their season. Motor Lublin, positioned 15th with five points, aim to distance themselves from the relegation
Football Prediction: Raków Częstochowa vs Motor Lublin | Ekstraklasa | 11/09/2026
06.09.2026
07:03
Raków Częstochowa
60%
VS
Motor Lublin
14%
Prediction
Raków Częstochowa @ 1.69
Over 2.5 Goals
YES @ 1.53
58% probability
45%Model accuracy (last 60 days) — 125/276
★ BEST BET
Raków Częstochowa Win @ 1.69
Raków Częstochowa have a 60% probability of victory, supported by an expected goals (xG) of 2.15 compared to Motor Lublin's 1.12. Despite their poor league position, they are playing at home where they've scored an average of 1.6 goals per game. The model's confidence is 88%, offering value over the odds' implied probability of 59%.
💡 Raków Częstochowa's expected goals (xG) of 2.15 suggests they are likely to create more scoring opportunities than Motor Lublin, whose xG is just 1.12. This disparity highlights Raków's attacking potential, particularly at home.
Final Result
Raków Częstochowa 2 : 1 Motor Lublin
Our prediction: 1 ✓
In the heart of Poland, Raków Częstochowa will attempt to break their winless streak against Motor Lublin. Sitting at the bottom of the Ekstraklasa table with zero points from five matches, Raków are desperate for a win to kickstart their season. Motor Lublin, positioned 15th with five points, aim to distance themselves from the relegation zone. A key statistic to note is Raków's average of 1.6 goals scored per home game, indicating their potential strength on familiar turf. The prediction leans towards a Raków victory, bolstered by their higher expected goals and home advantage.
Team Statistics
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.18
Double Chance X22.06
Double Chance 121.22
Over 1.5 Goals1.14
Under 1.5 Goals4.4
The Verdict
Raków Częstochowa are predicted to win, with a 60% probability at odds of 1.69. They boast an expected goals (xG) of 2.15, indicating strong offensive capabilities. Their home scoring average of 1.6 goals supports this prediction, while Motor Lublin's away form shows vulnerability, conceding an average of 2 goals per match. The model suggests value in this pick as the implied probability is 59%, slightly lower than the model's 60%. As an alternative, the Over 2.5 goals market, with a 58% probability, provides another viable option. However, the risk lies in Raków's recent poor form, having lost their last five matches.
The Match in Context
Raków Częstochowa, rooted at the bottom of the Ekstraklasa, face a critical match as they seek their first points of the season. With zero points and a goal difference of -7, they are desperate to move up from 18th place. Meanwhile, Motor Lublin sit in 15th place with five points, just above the relegation zone. They need to secure points to avoid slipping further. Raków's recent form is troubling, having lost all their last five matches, while Motor Lublin have shown mixed results with a win, a draw, and three losses. This match is pivotal for both sides, especially for Raków, who are under immense pressure to perform.
Key Statistics
Raków Częstochowa have an expected goals (xG) of 2.15 at home, indicating their attacking potential, while Motor Lublin's xG away is 1.12, suggesting a more defensive setup. Raków average 1.6 goals per home game, which is significant given their need for a win. They keep clean sheets in 30% of home matches, a factor that could frustrate Motor Lublin. The BTTS rate is 65% for Raków, pointing to frequent goal exchanges. Over 2.5 goals occur in 70% of Raków's games, reflecting high-scoring affairs. Head-to-head, the average goals per match is 2.6, suggesting a competitive encounter.
Risk Scenarios: The Case Against
The primary risk to the prediction of a Raków win lies in their recent form, having lost their last five matches. Their defence has been leaky, conceding 1.5 goals per game at home. Motor Lublin, despite their struggles, have shown they can score on the road, averaging 1.38 goals per away match. If Raków's defensive frailties continue, Motor Lublin could exploit this, especially if they score early and unsettle the home side. Another risk is Raków's inability to maintain clean sheets consistently, which could lead to a high-scoring draw. Given these risks, the Over 2.5 goals market might offer a safer bet, considering the attacking tendencies of both teams.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
2
What is Raków Częstochowa's recent form?
Raków Częstochowa have lost their last five matches, including a 1-2 defeat to Gornik Zabrze. At home, they have won 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored per game, but their recent form is declining.
3
What is Motor Lublin's away form this season?
Motor Lublin's recent away form shows a draw at Korona Kielce (1-1) and a loss at Pogon Szczecin (3-1). They have won 1, drawn 3, and lost 4 in their last 8 away matches, scoring an average of 1.38 goals per away game.
4
What does the head-to-head record say about Raków Częstochowa vs Motor Lublin?
In the last five meetings, Raków Częstochowa have won 3, with 2 draws and no losses to Motor Lublin. The average goals per match is 2.6, with 40% of these matches seeing Over 2.5 goals, indicating Raków's dominance.
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What is at stake in Raków Częstochowa vs Motor Lublin?
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