In the heart of Łódź, Widzew Łódź find themselves at a critical juncture in the Ekstraklasa season. Currently ranked 13th with six points, they are eager to climb the standings and distance themselves from the lower echelons. Their recent form has been inconsistent, with a mix of results that include a narrow 2-3 defeat to
Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom — Analysis and Odds | Ekstraklasa | 05/09/2026
31.08.2026
07:02
Widzew Łódź
79%
VS
Radomiak Radom
10%
Prediction
Widzew Łódź @ 1.7
Over 2.5 Goals
YES @ 1.9
69% probability
48%Model accuracy (last 60 days) — 129/269
★ BEST BET
Widzew Łódź Win @ 1.7
The model assigns Widzew Łódź a 79% chance of victory, significantly higher than the implied probability of 58.8% at odds of 1.7. Their home record of 7 wins in 14 matches, combined with Radomiak Radom's poor away form, which includes 5 losses in 7 games, strengthens this recommendation. Additionally, Widzew Łódź's recent xG of 3.77 suggests a potent attack capable of overcoming Radomiak Radom's defensive vulnerabilities.
💡 Widzew Łódź's expected goals of 3.77 starkly contrast with Radomiak Radom's 0.56, highlighting a significant attacking edge for the home side that could dictate the match's outcome.
Final Result
Widzew Łódź 0 : 0 Radomiak Radom
Our prediction: 1 ✗
In the heart of Łódź, Widzew Łódź find themselves at a critical juncture in the Ekstraklasa season. Currently ranked 13th with six points, they are eager to climb the standings and distance themselves from the lower echelons. Their recent form has been inconsistent, with a mix of results that include a narrow 2-3 defeat to Lech Poznan and a solid 2-0 victory against Jagiellonia. This inconsistency could be pivotal as they face Radomiak Radom, a team whose away record is fraught with challenges, having conceded an average of 2.86 goals per game on the road. The stakes are high for Widzew Łódź, as a win could propel them into the top half of the table, while a loss might see them dangerously close to the relegation zone. The statistical underpinnings of this match suggest a clash dominated by Widzew Łódź's offensive capabilities against the defensive frailties of Radomiak Radom.
Team Statistics
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.18
Double Chance X22.1
Double Chance 121.2
Over 1.5 Goals1.28
Under 1.5 Goals3.55
Recent Form: Scoring & Defensive Patterns
Widzew Łódź's recent form shows a mixed bag of results, with a 2-3 loss to Lech Poznan and a 2-0 win over Jagiellonia hinting at their attacking prowess. At home, they average 1.71 goals per game, maintaining a solid defensive record with an average of 0.86 goals conceded. Conversely, Radomiak Radom's form is less encouraging, with a recent 5-0 thrashing by Legia Warszawa highlighting their defensive frailties. They have scored just once in their last two away matches, averaging a concerning 2.86 goals conceded per away game. This disparity in recent form suggests that Widzew Łódź is in better scoring form, while Radomiak Radom remains vulnerable defensively, making the home side the more likely to excel in front of goal.
Best Bet Recommendation
The highest-value market is Widzew Łódź to win at odds of 1.7. The model gives them a 79% probability of winning, compared to the implied odds probability of 58.8%, offering a substantial value edge. Their robust home form, with an average of 1.71 goals scored per game, supports this market. Additionally, Radomiak Radom's away record of five losses in seven games underscores their struggles on the road. As an alternative, the Over 2.5 goals market, with a model probability of 69% and odds of 1.9, offers a solid backup given the attacking strengths and defensive weaknesses on display. A combination bet of Widzew Łódź to win and Over 2.5 goals could leverage these correlated markets effectively.
Goal Markets: The Full Analysis
The expected goals for Widzew Łódź and Radomiak Radom stand at 3.77 and 0.56, respectively, indicating a likely dominance by the home side in attacking play. The Over 2.5 market, priced at odds of 1.9, is supported by a model probability of 69%, offering a substantial value edge over the implied probability of 52.6%. Historically, 80% of their head-to-head encounters have seen over 2.5 goals, reinforcing this market's appeal. Both teams have been involved in high-scoring matches, with Radomiak Radom's games exceeding 2.5 goals 75% of the time. The BTTS market, at odds of 1.83, presents a moderate risk given Widzew Łódź's 55% clean sheet rate at home. However, Radomiak Radom's tendency to concede heavily suggests a safer alternative in the Over 1.5 market, priced at odds of 1.28. The timing of goals could also play a role; Widzew Łódź has scored 11 first-half goals this season, indicating early scoring potential. Thus, the ranking of value in goal markets is Over 2.5, followed by Over 1.5, and finally BTTS.
The Decisive Statistical Battlegrounds
The first key battleground is Widzew Łódź's home attack against Radomiak Radom's away defence. Widzew Łódź scores an average of 1.71 goals per home game, while Radomiak Radom concedes 2.86 goals on the road, suggesting a significant advantage for the home side. The second battle lies in set-pieces, where Widzew Łódź's ability to capitalise on dead-ball situations could exploit Radomiak's aerial weaknesses, evidenced by their high goals conceded rate. Lastly, the midfield control will be crucial, as Radomiak's slightly better possession average of 47% could be pivotal in disrupting Widzew's flow. The most decisive battleground, however, is the home attack versus the away defence, as it directly influences the recommended market of Widzew Łódź to win, given the stark contrast in scoring and conceding patterns.
Frequently Asked Questions
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What is Widzew Łódź's recent form?
Widzew Łódź's last five results include a 2-3 loss to Lech Poznan and a 2-0 victory over Jagiellonia. At home, they have secured 7 wins from 14 matches, scoring an average of 1.71 goals, with 11 clean sheets in total.
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What is at stake in Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom?
Widzew Łódź, currently 13th with 6 points, aims to climb the standings and avoid relegation danger. A win could move them closer to mid-table security, while Radomiak Radom seeks to improve their poor away form.
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