⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
YES
52% probability
Gent has shown a stronger xG at 1.76 compared to Genk’s 1.3, and they are playing at home, where they average 1.2 goals per
game. Despite recent form, their calculated
odds of
winning at 39% suggests they can capitalize on home advantage.
💡 Gent’s decline in form with 0.6 points per
game recently contrasts with their earlier season performance, indicating potential volatility in outcomes.
Final Result
Gent 0 : 0 Genk
Our prediction: 1 ✗
Gent faces Genk at the Planet Group Arena in Gent for a crucial Jupiler Pro League clash. Gent, ranked 5th with 29 points, is in a declining trend, while Genk, 7th with 42 points, remains stable. With Gent’s recent form of LDDDL and Genk’s WDDWL, the match is set to be a test of resilience and strategy.
Avg Scored1.25
Avg Conceded1.4
Over 2.545%
BTTS50%
Clean Sheets5
Avg Scored1.6
Avg Conceded1.35
Over 2.555%
BTTS50%
Clean Sheets8
🏟️Venue
Planet Group Arena, Gent
20,185 capacity · Grass
⭐ Gent — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| D. Roef | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.28 | 40 | 3 |
| T. De Vlieger | Midfielder | 0 | 0 | 7.19 | 24 | 13 |
| M. Skóraś | Midfielder | 2 | 7 | 7.03 | 31 | 58 |
| M. Delorge-Knieper | Midfielder | 0 | 3 | 7.00 | 19 | 16 |
| Tiago Araújo | Defender | 1 | 4 | 6.94 | 34 | 57 |
⭐ Genk — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| B. Heynen | Midfielder | 4 | 1 | 7.31 | 39 | 46 |
| H. Van Crombrugge | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.18 | 12 | 0 |
| M. Smets | Defender | 0 | 1 | 7.17 | 39 | 17 |
| Z. El Ouahdi | Defender | 8 | 4 | 7.09 | 34 | 49 |
| D. Heymans | Midfielder | 10 | 4 | 7.04 | 30 | 32 |
Historical Data
In their last 10 meetings, Genk has the upper hand with 5 wins compared to Gent’s 1, with 4 matches ending in a draw. The average goals per match in these encounters is 2.8, with 50% of matches seeing over 2.5 goals and 50% resulting in both teams scoring. Their most recent meeting ended in a 3-0 victory for Genk, highlighting their historical dominance in this fixture.
Model Output & Recommendation
The Poisson model suggests a most likely scoreline of 1-1, with Gent having a 39% probability of winning, Genk at 32%, and a draw at 29%. The over 2.5 goals market is estimated at 52%, while both teams scoring stands at 53%. The confidence score of 86% supports the recommendation for Gent to win, given their higher xG and home advantage. The prediction is priced at 1.XX, indicating value in backing Gent despite their recent form struggles.
Statistical Deep Dive
Gent’s last 20 matches show a record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, with an average of 1.25 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded per game. At home, they score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals on average. Their over 2.5 goals rate stands at 45%, while both teams scoring occurs in 50% of matches. Genk, on the other hand, has a more favorable record with 9 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses, scoring 1.6 goals per game and conceding 1.35 on average. Away, Genk scores 1.9 and concedes 1.9 per game. Their over 2.5 goals occurrence is 55%, with both teams scoring also at 50%. The confidence score for the match prediction is 86%, a reflection of data strength and consistency.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
Who will
win Gent vs Genk?
Gent is predicted to
win with a 39% probability. This is supported by their xG of 1.76 compared to Genk’s 1.3 and their home scoring average of 1.2 goals per
game. Despite recent form, their calculated
odds suggest potential for success at home.
2
The BTTS probability for this match is 53%. Both
teams have a 50% BTTS rate in their last 20 matches, and their head-to-head record shows the same.
Odds for both
teams to
score are priced at 1.XX. Genk is less likely to fail to
score, having only failed in 5 of their last 20 matches.
3
What is Genk's away form this season?
In their last 5 away matches, Genk has recorded 2
wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. They average 1.9 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per away match, demonstrating a strong offensive presence on the road.
4
Which players are key to watch in Gent vs Genk?
For Gent, M. Skóraś is key with 2 goals and 7 assists, rated at 7.03. His playmaking ability is crucial for creating scoring opportunities. B. Heynen from Genk, with 4 goals and 1 assist, rated at 7.31, influences both defensive and offensive phases, making him a pivotal figure.
5
Are there injury concerns for Gent vs Genk?
Both
teams appear to be fit with no significant injuries reported. This allows both squads to field their strongest line-ups, which could potentially impact the fluidity and competitiveness of the match.
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Jupiler Pro League31.05.2026
