AlmeriaDraw 14%Valladolid
🏆
Prediction
Almeria @ 1.46
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
YES @ 1.57
68% probability
🔁
YES @ 1.67
58% probability
Over 1.5 @ 1.18
The match features two
teams with contrasting goal-scoring records. Almeria averages 2 goals per
game, with 75% of their recent matches exceeding 2.5 goals. Valladolid's away defensive frailties, conceding an average of 2.3 goals per match, further suggest a high-scoring encounter.
💡 Almeria's high goal-scoring rate at home (2.8 per
game) significantly contrasts Valladolid's defensive struggles on the road, indicating potential for a high-scoring affair.
Final Result
Almeria 1 : 0 Valladolid
Our prediction: 1 ✓
Almeria, ranked 3rd in the Segunda División, face Valladolid, who are battling in 16th place. With promotion playoffs in sight, Almeria's performance is crucial. Their recent form shows a decline, yet their home scoring average of 2.8 goals per game remains impressive. Valladolid, struggling away with an average of 2.3 goals conceded, need a strong defensive display to secure points.
Avg Scored2
Avg Conceded1.65
Over 2.575%
BTTS75%
Clean Sheets2
Avg Scored1.15
Avg Conceded1.65
Over 2.555%
BTTS40%
Clean Sheets6
⭐ Almeria — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| Sergio Arribas | Midfielder | 24 | 7 | 7.44 | 40 | 86 |
| Andrés Fernández | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.16 | 39 | 0 |
| Adri Embarba | Midfielder | 15 | 9 | 7.03 | 38 | 59 |
| D. Lopy | Midfielder | 3 | 2 | 6.98 | 25 | 19 |
| Miguel de la Fuente | Attacker | 4 | 4 | 6.96 | 19 | 22 |
⭐ Valladolid — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| Álvaro Aceves | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.03 | 11 | 0 |
| Iván Alejo | Defender | 0 | 1 | 7.00 | 35 | 49 |
| Chuky San José | Midfielder | 7 | 7 | 6.96 | 34 | 46 |
| A. Ndiaye | Midfielder | 4 | 0 | 6.91 | 18 | 14 |
| S. Jurić | Midfielder | 1 | 1 | 6.90 | 35 | 25 |
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.11
Double Chance X22.62
Double Chance 121.15
Over 1.5 Goals1.18
Under 1.5 Goals4.75
Historical Data
In their last 10 meetings, Valladolid holds the upper hand with 5 wins compared to Almeria's 1. The average goals per match stand at 2.2, with Over 2.5 goals occurring in 50% of these encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of these matches as well. The most recent encounter saw Valladolid secure a 3-1 victory, showcasing their ability to capitalize on Almeria's defensive lapses. Almeria's solitary win was a 3-1 victory in 2021, highlighting their potential to turn the tables in favorable conditions.
Model Output & Recommendation
The Poisson model predicts a high-scoring match, with Almeria expected to score 4.4 goals compared to Valladolid's 1.07. This suggests a 73% probability of an Almeria win, a 14% chance of a draw, and a 13% likelihood of a Valladolid victory. The model's confidence score is 88%, supported by data consistency and agreement across multiple metrics. The most likely scoreline is 4-1, reflecting Almeria's offensive strength and Valladolid's defensive vulnerabilities. The odds for Over 2.5 goals are priced at 1.57, further supporting the expectation of a goal-heavy match.
Statistical Deep Dive
Almeria's offensive prowess is evident with an average of 2 goals per match, bolstered by the league's top scorer, Sergio Arribas, who has netted 24 times this season. Their home form has been formidable, with 14 wins out of 20 matches, scoring 51 goals. Defensively, they concede 1.5 goals on average at home, which may be exploited by Valladolid. However, Valladolid's away form is less convincing, with only 4 wins and an average of 1.3 goals scored per match. Their defensive record shows vulnerability, having conceded 2.3 goals on average when away. The BTTS rate of 75% for Almeria suggests a high probability of both teams finding the net.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
Who will
win Almeria vs Valladolid?
Almeria is predicted to
win with a 73% probability. They boast a formidable home record, averaging 2.8 goals per
game, and have scored 40 goals in their last 20 matches. Defensively, Valladolid struggles on the road, conceding an average of 2.3 goals per match.
2
The BTTS probability is 58%. Almeria's recent matches show a 75% BTTS rate, while Valladolid's is 40%. The
odds for BTTS Yes are 1.67. Almeria's strong home attack makes Valladolid the more likely
team to fail to
score, given their lower clean sheet rate.
3
What is Valladolid's away form this season?
Valladolid's last 5 away results are LLWLW. They have won 4 out of 20 away matches, scoring an average of 1.3 goals per
game but conceding 2.3. Their away form highlights defensive weaknesses that could be exploited by Almeria.
4
Which players are key to watch in Almeria vs Valladolid?
Sergio Arribas of Almeria, with 24 goals and 7 assists, is a pivotal player. His consistent scoring makes him a threat in attack. For Valladolid, Chuky San José, with 7 goals and 7 assists, provides creative flair and has been influential in midfield.
5
Are there injury concerns for Almeria vs Valladolid?
No significant injuries are reported for either
team, indicating both squads are fit. This full squad availability could lead to a more competitive match, with both
teams fielding their strongest line-ups.
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Segunda División31.05.2026
