🏆
Prediction
West Ham @ 1.84
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
YES @ 1.65
55% probability
🔁
YES @ 1.6
58% probability
West Ham's home scoring average of 1.7 goals per
game suggests a strong offensive potential, while Leeds concedes an average of 1.2 goals away. The Poisson model gives West Ham a 56% chance to
win, reinforcing their home advantage.
💡 Despite their low league standing, West Ham's home form shows resilience with an average of 1.7 goals scored per
game, indicating potential to outperform expectations.
Final Result
West Ham 3 : 0 Leeds
Our prediction: 1 ✓
West Ham face Leeds at the London Stadium on 24.05.2026, a match where relegation-threatened West Ham will seek survival. A pivotal statistic is West Ham's 56% win probability, driven by their robust home scoring of 1.7 goals per game. Leeds, with a secure mid-table position, aim to extend their unbeaten streak to six matches. The stakes are high for West Ham, needing a win to avoid relegation.
Avg Scored1.4
Avg Conceded1.35
Over 2.555%
BTTS55%
Clean Sheets6
Avg Scored1.3
Avg Conceded1
Over 2.545%
BTTS50%
Clean Sheets6
🏟️Venue
London Stadium, London
64,472 capacity · Grass
⭐ West Ham — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| K. Mavropanos | Defender | 3 | 0 | 7.05 | 30 | 4 |
| J. Bowen | Attacker | 8 | 10 | 6.98 | 37 | 43 |
| J. Ward-Prowse | Midfielder | 0 | 0 | 6.90 | 5 | 12 |
| Lucas Paquetá | Attacker | 4 | 1 | 6.89 | 18 | 23 |
| F. Potts | Midfielder | 0 | 1 | 6.82 | 22 | 8 |
⭐ Leeds — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| E. Ampadu | Midfielder | 1 | 1 | 7.16 | 34 | 19 |
| A. Stach | Midfielder | 5 | 3 | 7.15 | 29 | 63 |
| K. Darlow | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.02 | 21 | 0 |
| S. Longstaff | Midfielder | 2 | 2 | 6.90 | 23 | 25 |
| P. Struijk | Defender | 0 | 1 | 6.85 | 33 | 12 |
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.25
Double Chance X21.91
Double Chance 121.22
Over 1.5 Goals1.22
Under 1.5 Goals4.2
Historical Data
In their last 10 meetings, West Ham holds a slight edge with 5 wins to Leeds' 3. Matches between these sides average 3.2 goals, with a high 70% over 2.5 goals occurrence and 80% BTTS rate. Their most recent encounter ended in a 2-2 draw, reflecting the competitive nature of this matchup.
Model Output & Recommendation
The Poisson model predicts a 1-0 victory for West Ham, with a confidence score of 88%. This is based on a 56% win probability for West Ham, a 25% chance of a draw, and 19% for Leeds. The model's confidence is bolstered by data agreement and consistency, suggesting West Ham's home advantage will be decisive. Exact odds for a West Ham win are 1.84.
Statistical Deep Dive
West Ham's home performance is crucial, with 1.7 goals scored on average, contrasting with Leeds' stable away defense conceding 1.2 goals per match. West Ham have a declining trend, averaging 0.8 points per game recently, yet they maintain a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals in matches. Leeds' away form is consistent, with a 50% BTTS rate. The Poisson model suggests a 56% win probability for West Ham, with an expected goals tally of 1.75, indicating a possible edge in offensive output.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
Who will
win West Ham vs Leeds?
West Ham is predicted to
win with a 56% probability. Key statistical reasons include their home goal average of 1.7 per
game and Leeds' away defensive average of 1.2 goals conceded. West Ham's xG of 1.75 further supports their offensive potential.
2
The BTTS percentage is 58%, with historical H2H BTTS at 80%. The
odds for BTTS Yes are 1.6. Leeds is more likely to keep a clean sheet, having achieved 6 in their last 20 matches.
3
What is Leeds's away form this season?
Leeds' last five away results are DWDLD. They have 2 away
wins this season, scoring an average of 1.2 goals per away match and conceding 1.2. This stability reflects their consistent away performances.
4
Which players are key to watch in West Ham vs Leeds?
For West Ham, J. Bowen is crucial with 8 goals, 10 assists, and a 6.98 rating, impacting their offensive play significantly. Leeds' E. Ampadu, with a 7.16 rating, controls the midfield with 19 key passes, contributing to their stable form.
5
Are there injury concerns for West Ham vs Leeds?
Both squads appear fit with no significant injuries reported. This full availability allows for optimal tactical setups, potentially influencing the match dynamics.
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Premier League24.05.2026
