🏆
Prediction
Burnley @ 2.46
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
NO @ 1.73
47% probability
🔁
NO @ 1.57
45% probability
Burnley's home advantage could be pivotal as they average 1.5 goals scored per home match compared to Wolves' 0.44 goals scored per away
game. With an expected xG of 2.06 for Burnley against Wolves' 0.48, Burnley is statistically favored.
💡 Burnley has the highest probability of
winning at 67% due to their superior home scoring rate and Wolves' low away goal average.
Final Result
Burnley 1 : 1 Wolves
Our prediction: 1 ✗
As Burnley prepares to face Wolves at Turf Moor, Burnley, one statistic stands out: Burnley has a 67% probability of winning based on the Poisson model. Both teams are already relegated, but Burnley's slightly better home performance, averaging 1.5 goals per match, provides a statistical edge. This match is crucial for morale as both teams aim to end their seasons on a positive note.
Avg Scored1.15
Avg Conceded2
Over 2.555%
BTTS60%
Clean Sheets1
Avg Scored1
Avg Conceded1.55
Over 2.545%
BTTS45%
Clean Sheets4
🏟️Venue
Turf Moor, Burnley
22,546 capacity · Grass
⭐ Burnley — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| M. Weiß | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.25 | 2 | 0 |
| M. Dúbravka | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 6.99 | 35 | 0 |
| J. Cullen | Midfielder | 2 | 2 | 6.91 | 18 | 13 |
| J. Anthony | Midfielder | 8 | 2 | 6.79 | 36 | 35 |
| Z. Flemming | Midfielder | 10 | 0 | 6.79 | 28 | 10 |
⭐ Wolves — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| S. Johnstone | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 6.93 | 12 | 0 |
| E. Agbadou | Defender | 0 | 0 | 6.85 | 14 | 4 |
| José Sá | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 6.83 | 22 | 1 |
| André | Midfielder | 1 | 0 | 6.81 | 34 | 18 |
| João Gomes | Midfielder | 1 | 1 | 6.78 | 35 | 16 |
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.45
Double Chance X21.53
Double Chance 121.25
Over 1.5 Goals1.22
Under 1.5 Goals4
Historical Data
In their last 10 meetings, Burnley holds a slight edge with 4 wins compared to Wolves' 3, while 3 matches ended in draws. The average goals per match sit at 2.3, with both teams scoring in 40% of these encounters. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 40% of these matches, indicating a moderate scoring tendency. The recent trend shows Burnley winning the latest encounter 3-2, suggesting they might have the psychological advantage.
Model Output & Recommendation
The Poisson model strongly favors Burnley with a 67% win probability. The model's confidence score of 88% is derived from a combination of data points such as Burnley's higher xG, the discrepancy in goal averages, and historical head-to-head performance. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 2-0 in Burnley's favor, aligning with their superior home scoring statistics. Priced at 2.46, Burnley presents a value bet with their recent home form providing a statistical edge.
Statistical Deep Dive
Burnley's recent form has been concerning, with only 2 wins in their last 20 matches and an average of 1.15 goals scored per game. Notably, their home performance shows a slightly better goal-scoring average at 1.5 per game, while conceding 1.8. Wolves, on the other hand, have struggled away, scoring just 0.44 goals per match and conceding 1.78. This disparity in away form contributes to Burnley's favorable odds. Clean sheets are rare for both, with Burnley achieving just 1 and Wolves managing 4 in their last 20 games. The expected goals model suggests Burnley is likely to dominate, with an xG of 2.06 compared to Wolves' 0.48.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
Who will
win Burnley vs Wolves?
Burnley is predicted to
win with a 67% probability. This is supported by their home goal average of 1.5 per
game and Wolves' low away goal average of 0.44. Burnley's xG of 2.06 further supports their likelihood of victory.
2
The BTTS percentage for this matchup is 45%, with
odds of 1.57 for Yes and 2.3 for No. Burnley's higher probability of scoring at home suggests they are less likely to fail to
score compared to Wolves.
3
What is Wolves's away form this season?
In their last five away matches, Wolves have drawn one and lost four, failing to
score in three. They average 0.44 goals scored per away
game, conceding 1.78. This highlights their struggle on the road.
4
Which players are key to watch in Burnley vs Wolves?
For Burnley, Z. Flemming stands out with 10 goals and a rating of 6.79. His ability to find the net will be crucial. For Wolves, André, with 1 goal and 18 key passes, rated at 6.81, plays a vital creative role.
5
Are there injury concerns for Burnley vs Wolves?
There are no significant injuries reported for either
team. Both squads appear fit, allowing coaches to field their strongest lineups, which could influence a more competitive match.
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Premier League24.05.2026
