EvertonDraw 23%Sunderland
🏆
Prediction
Everton @ 1.82
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
NO @ 1.85
48% probability
🔁
YES @ 1.77
51% probability
Everton's expected goals (xG) of 1.96 against Sunderland's 1.00 gives them a clear edge. Their home form, with an average of 1.5 goals scored per match, supports this. Sunderland's struggle to
score away, averaging only 1 goal, further tilts the balance in Everton's favor.
💡 Everton's goal-scoring consistency at home (1.5 goals/match) suggests a stronger offensive presence, despite recent overall form dips.
Final Result
Everton 1 : 3 Sunderland
Our prediction: 1 ✗
Everton faces Sunderland at Hill Dickinson Stadium in Liverpool. With both teams in the mid-table, this match is crucial for either to finish the season on a high note. Everton holds a slight edge, with a better home record and higher expected goals. Bettors will find value in Everton's home advantage, despite their inconsistent recent form.
Avg Scored1.45
Avg Conceded1.35
Over 2.550%
BTTS65%
Clean Sheets5
Avg Scored0.95
Avg Conceded1.5
Over 2.545%
BTTS45%
Clean Sheets5
🏟️Venue
Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool, Merseyside
52,888 capacity · Grass
⭐ Everton — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| J. Garner | Defender | 2 | 7 | 7.22 | 36 | 52 |
| J. Tarkowski | Defender | 2 | 3 | 7.21 | 35 | 18 |
| J. Grealish | Midfielder | 2 | 6 | 7.20 | 20 | 40 |
| K. Dewsbury-Hall | Midfielder | 8 | 4 | 7.16 | 29 | 34 |
| J. Pickford | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.06 | 36 | 2 |
⭐ Sunderland — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| G. Xhaka | Midfielder | 1 | 6 | 7.33 | 32 | 34 |
| R. Roefs | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.02 | 33 | 4 |
| J. Seelt | Defender | 0 | 0 | 6.95 | 2 | 0 |
| E. Le Fée | Midfielder | 4 | 5 | 6.86 | 34 | 48 |
| D. Ballard | Defender | 2 | 0 | 6.83 | 29 | 15 |
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.22
Double Chance X21.93
Double Chance 121.22
Over 1.5 Goals1.28
Under 1.5 Goals3.55
Form & Key Players
Everton's form has dipped, with no wins in their last five matches (DDLLD). Key players like J. Garner and K. Dewsbury-Hall are pivotal, contributing to goals and assists. Sunderland's recent form shows a slight improvement with a win in their last match, but their away performance remains weak. G. Xhaka and E. Le Fée are Sunderland's creative forces, yet their goal conversion remains low. Everton's offensive threat at home, coupled with Sunderland's defensive vulnerabilities, creates potential value in the market.
Match Prediction
Considering Everton's home strength and Sunderland's away vulnerabilities, Everton is favored to win. The odds of 1.82 reflect this, aligning with a model probability of 57%. Everton's ability to score consistently at home, paired with Sunderland's defensive struggles, suggests a likely home victory. However, bettors should note the recent dip in Everton's form, which introduces some risk.
Home Ground Advantage
Everton's home ground advantage at Hill Dickinson Stadium is notable. They have scored an average of 1.5 goals per match at home, compared to 1 away. This consistent scoring, coupled with a home clean sheet rate of 30%, gives them a statistical edge. Sunderland, on the other hand, has struggled with just 4 away wins all season, averaging 1 goal per away match. The grass surface suits Everton's playing style, enhancing their attacking output. These factors make Everton's home ground a fortress, providing a clear market edge.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
Who will
win Everton vs Sunderland?
Everton is predicted to
win with a 57% probability. They average 1.5 goals scored at home and have an expected goals (xG) of 1.96, which is significantly higher than Sunderland's xG of 1.00.
2
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Everton vs Sunderland?
The model suggests a 48% probability for Over 2.5 goals, with
odds priced at 1.85. Given Everton's higher goal average at home and Sunderland's defensive weaknesses,
betting on Over 2.5 goals is viable but not without risk.
3
What is Everton's recent form?
Everton's last 5 results are DDLLD, with an average of 1.5 goals scored at home. They have kept 6 clean sheets at home this season. Their form is currently declining.
4
What is Sunderland's away form this season?
Sunderland's last 5 away results are DLLDW. They have won 4 away matches, scoring an average of 1 goal per away match, while conceding 1.58 goals.
5
What does the head-to-head record say about Everton vs Sunderland?
In the last 10 meetings, Everton won 5, Sunderland won 3, with 2 draws. The average goals per meeting is 2.8, with 40% of matches going Over 2.5 goals. Everton has shown recent dominance in these encounters.
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Premier League17.05.2026
