BrentfordDraw 32%Crystal Palace
🏆
Prediction
Brentford @ 1.71
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
NO @ 1.65
49% probability
🔁
YES @ 1.65
55% probability
Double Chance 1X @ 1.2
Brentford's home form, with an average of 1.38 goals scored per
game and a relatively strong defensive record of 1.13 conceded, combined with Crystal Palace's inconsistent away performance, suggests a higher likelihood of Brentford avoiding defeat. Crystal Palace's away form, conceding an average of 1.5 goals per away
game, further supports this prediction.
💡 Despite Brentford's recent decline, their home ground advantage shows a consistent ability to
score, averaging 1.38 goals at home, which could be crucial against a Crystal Palace side with a declining trend.
Final Result
Brentford 2 : 2 Crystal Palace
Our prediction: 1 ✗
With Brentford currently ranked 8th in the Premier League and Crystal Palace at 15th, the upcoming match at the Gtech Community Stadium in Brentford is pivotal for both teams. Brentford, having scored an average of 1.45 goals per game over the last 20 matches, will aim to capitalize on their offensive momentum. Crystal Palace, with a slightly better recent form in terms of goals scored per match (1.4), will be looking to improve their standing. The stakes are high as both teams have shown fluctuating performances.
Avg Scored1.45
Avg Conceded1.25
Over 2.550%
BTTS40%
Clean Sheets8
Avg Scored1.4
Avg Conceded1.1
Over 2.560%
BTTS60%
Clean Sheets7
🏟️Venue
Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford, Middlesex
17,250 capacity · Grass
⭐ Brentford — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| C. Kelleher | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.06 | 35 | 3 |
| M. Jensen | Midfielder | 3 | 1 | 6.97 | 34 | 31 |
| Thiago | Attacker | 22 | 1 | 6.97 | 36 | 23 |
| M. Kayode | Defender | 1 | 1 | 6.89 | 35 | 34 |
| S. van den Berg | Defender | 0 | 1 | 6.81 | 30 | 6 |
⭐ Crystal Palace — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| M. Guéhi | Defender | 2 | 2 | 7.22 | 20 | 9 |
| W. Benítez | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.20 | 1 | 0 |
| A. Wharton | Midfielder | 0 | 5 | 7.08 | 31 | 38 |
| C. Richards | Defender | 1 | 0 | 6.96 | 31 | 9 |
| D. Henderson | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 6.95 | 34 | 1 |
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.2
Double Chance X22.05
Double Chance 121.2
Over 1.5 Goals1.2
Under 1.5 Goals4.33
Historical Data
In the last nine meetings between Brentford and Crystal Palace, each team has secured two wins, with the remaining five matches ending in draws. The average goals per match in these encounters is 2, with a 33% probability of games exceeding 2.5 goals. Both teams have scored in 67% of these head-to-heads, highlighting a tendency for competitive matches. The most recent encounter saw Crystal Palace win 2-0, but Brentford's home advantage could tilt the balance in this fixture.
Model Output & Recommendation
The Poisson model indicates a 46% probability of a Brentford win, with a 32% chance of a draw and 22% for a Crystal Palace victory. The confidence score of 88% is derived from data strength (31 points), model agreement (10 points), and consistency (6 points). The most likely scoreline is 1-1, suggesting a potential draw, but Brentford's home performance and Crystal Palace's away vulnerabilities increase Brentford's chances. Odds for a Brentford win are priced at 1.71, suggesting a moderate confidence in their ability to outperform Crystal Palace.
Statistical Deep Dive
Brentford's expected goals (xG) of 1.74 compared to Crystal Palace's 1.06 suggests a higher likelihood of offensive success for the home team. Brentford's scoring average at home is 1.38 goals per game, while they concede 1.13 on average, indicating a balanced but slightly favorable home advantage. Crystal Palace, on the other hand, scores 1.4 goals per away game but concedes 1.5, showing vulnerability on the road. The match has a 49% probability of going over 2.5 goals, with a 55% chance of both teams scoring. Brentford's clean sheet rate at home stands at 25%, whereas Crystal Palace has a similar rate of 25% on away ground.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
Who will
win Brentford vs Crystal Palace?
Brentford is predicted to
win with a 46% probability. Their higher xG of 1.74 compared to Crystal Palace's 1.06 and a stronger home goal-scoring average of 1.38 per
game support this. Additionally, Crystal Palace's away vulnerability, conceding 1.5 goals per
game, further indicates Brentford's advantage.
2
Will both
teams score in Brentford vs Crystal Palace?
There is a 55% chance of both
teams scoring, with BTTS
odds at 1.65. Historical data shows BTTS occurred in 67% of their head-to-heads. Crystal Palace has a higher likelihood of failing to
score, given their 25% clean sheet rate away from home.
3
What is Crystal Palace's away form this season?
In their last five away
games, Crystal Palace recorded one
win, one draw, and three losses. They scored an average of 1.4 goals but conceded 1.5 per match. Their away results highlight inconsistency, with a total of 20 goals scored in 17 away matches.
4
Which players are key to watch in Brentford vs Crystal Palace?
Thiago is Brentford's key player with 22 goals and a rating of 6.97. His scoring prowess is crucial for Brentford's attack. For Crystal Palace, M. Guéhi stands out with a rating of 7.22, providing defensive stability and contributing 2 goals and 2 assists.
5
Are there injury concerns for Brentford vs Crystal Palace?
There are no significant injury concerns reported for either
team, suggesting both squads are fit. This full availability allows both managers to field their strongest line-ups, potentially impacting the match outcome positively for both sides.
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Premier League17.05.2026
