VfL WolfsburgDraw 19%Bayern München
🏆
Prediction
Bayern München @ 1.68
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
YES @ 1.28
74% probability
🔁
YES @ 1.3
71% probability
Bayern München
Win @ 1.68
Bayern München's dominance is supported by a 70% probability of
winning, backed by an impressive goal-scoring average of 3.4 per
game in their last 20 matches. In contrast, Wolfsburg struggles with a goal difference of -25 and concedes an average of 2.25 goals per match.
💡 Despite Wolfsburg's recent improvement in form, their home defensive struggles, conceding 1.78 goals per match, could be exploited by Bayern's potent attack, which averages 3.18 goals in away fixtures.
Final Result
VfL Wolfsburg 0 : 1 Bayern München
Our prediction: 2 ✓
Bayern München, leading the Bundesliga with 83 points, face VfL Wolfsburg at Volkswagen Arena. Wolfsburg, ranked 16th with 26 points, are in a battle to avoid relegation. Bayern, with a goal difference of +81, have been prolific, scoring 68 goals in the last 20 matches, indicating a strong offensive presence. Wolfsburg's defense, conceding 45 goals in the same period, will be tested severely.
Avg Scored1.3
Avg Conceded2.25
Over 2.565%
BTTS80%
Clean Sheets1
Avg Scored3.4
Avg Conceded1.5
Over 2.585%
BTTS75%
Clean Sheets5
🏟️Venue
Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg
30,000 capacity · Grass
⭐ VfL Wolfsburg — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| J. Kamiński | Midfielder | 2 | 0 | 7.30 | 4 | 9 |
| K. Grabara | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.19 | 32 | 3 |
| M. Arnold | Midfielder | 1 | 4 | 7.09 | 25 | 29 |
| P. Wimmer | Midfielder | 4 | 3 | 6.92 | 24 | 14 |
| Vinicius Souza | Midfielder | 0 | 0 | 6.89 | 22 | 7 |
⭐ Bayern München — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| M. Olise | Midfielder | 14 | 19 | 7.88 | 30 | 80 |
| H. Kane | Attacker | 33 | 5 | 7.86 | 29 | 38 |
| J. Kimmich | Midfielder | 2 | 6 | 7.70 | 27 | 52 |
| L. Díaz | Midfielder | 15 | 13 | 7.31 | 30 | 63 |
| J. Tah | Defender | 2 | 1 | 7.26 | 26 | 5 |
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X2.1
Double Chance X21.22
Double Chance 121.15
Over 1.5 Goals1.08
Under 1.5 Goals7.5
Historical Data
In the last 10 meetings, Bayern München have won 9 times, with an average of 4.5 goals per game. The high-scoring nature is further highlighted by 80% of those matches going over 2.5 goals. Both teams have scored in 70% of these encounters, underlining the attacking tendencies. Wolfsburg's last win against Bayern dates back more than a decade, showing a historical trend of Bayern's dominance.
Model Output & Recommendation
The Poisson model suggests Bayern München have a 70% chance of winning, with the most likely score being 1-2. This prediction is supported by a high confidence level of 88%, derived from data points like recent form, goal averages, and head-to-head records. Wolfsburg's 11% chance of winning reflects their struggle in both form and historical performance against Bayern. The odds of 1.68 for a Bayern win align with the model's findings.
Statistical Deep Dive
Bayern München's expected goals (xG) of 2.3 sharply contrasts with Wolfsburg's 1.01, suggesting a likely dominance in the attacking phase. Bayern's away record is formidable, with 13 wins out of 16 away games, averaging 3.18 goals scored per match. Wolfsburg's defensive vulnerabilities are evident, with only 1 clean sheet in their last 20 matches and conceding an average of 2.25 goals per game. The odds favor Bayern, priced at 1.68 to win, reflecting their consistent performance and superior goal-scoring ability.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
Who will
win VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayern München?
Bayern München are predicted to
win with a 70% probability. Their average of 3.4 goals per
game and consistent
winning form, with 16 victories in their last 20 matches, support this. Wolfsburg's defensive record, conceding 2.25 goals per
game, further tilts the balance in Bayern's favor.
2
Will both
teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayern München?
There is a 71% chance for both
teams to
score, with BTTS
odds at 1.3. Historical data shows a 70% BTTS rate in their head-to-heads. Wolfsburg's low clean sheet rate suggests they are more likely to concede.
3
What is Bayern München's away form this season?
Bayern München's last five away results include four
wins and one loss, scoring an average of 3.18 goals per away match. They remain unbeaten away from home this season, highlighting their strength on the road.
4
Which players are key to watch in VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayern München?
For Bayern München, H. Kane is key, with 33 goals and a 7.86 rating. His scoring ability is crucial for Bayern's attack. For Wolfsburg, J. Kamiński stands out with a 7.30 rating, contributing to both defense and attack with key passes.
5
Are there injury concerns for VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayern München?
No significant injuries or suspensions have been reported, suggesting both
teams will field their strongest squads. This availability supports a competitive match, particularly for Wolfsburg needing points to avoid relegation.
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Bundesliga09.05.2026
