Dinamo Zagreb, leading the HNL with 79 points, faces off against second-placed HNK Hajduk Split, who trail by 15 points. The stakes are high for Dinamo Zagreb as they aim to consolidate their top position and Champions League qualification. Meanwhile, HNK Hajduk Split seeks to maintain their Conference League qualification spot. Both teams have shown strong form, but Dinamo Zagreb’s goal-scoring prowess at home, averaging 3.22 goals per match, sets the stage for an intriguing encounter.
Prediction Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Hajduk Split | 09.05.2026 | HNL
HNL09.05.2026
Dinamo Zagreb
55%
VS
HNK Hajduk Split
21%
Prediction
Dinamo Zagreb @ 1.48
Over 2.5 Goals
YES @ 1.57
58% probability
★ BEST BET
Over 1.5 @ 1.18
💡 Dinamo Zagreb's home scoring average of 3.22 goals per match significantly surpasses the league average of 1.73, indicating a potent attack that could sway the match in their favor.
Dinamo Zagreb, leading the HNL with 79 points, faces off against second-placed HNK Hajduk Split, who trail by 15 points. The stakes are high for Dinamo Zagreb as they aim to consolidate their top position and Champions League qualification. Meanwhile, HNK Hajduk Split seeks to maintain their Conference League qualification spot. Both teams have shown strong form, but Dinamo Zagreb's goal-scoring prowess at home, averaging 3.22 goals per match, sets the stage for an intriguing encounter.
Team Statistics
⭐ Dinamo Zagreb — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Mišić | Midfielder | 2 | 2 | 7.37 | 30 | 37 |
| Sergi Domínguez | Defender | 2 | 3 | 7.28 | 30 | 11 |
| S. McKenna | Defender | 2 | 3 | 7.25 | 30 | 11 |
| D. Beljo | Attacker | 29 | 5 | 7.24 | 33 | 49 |
| L. Stojković | Midfielder | 7 | 12 | 7.07 | 28 | 60 |
⭐ HNK Hajduk Split — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Benrahou | Attacker | 2 | 0 | 7.43 | 4 | 10 |
| F. Karačić | Defender | 1 | 1 | 7.22 | 11 | 11 |
| R. Pukštas | Midfielder | 9 | 1 | 7.21 | 28 | 32 |
| Z. Šarlija | Defender | 1 | 1 | 7.06 | 27 | 8 |
| R. Raci | Defender | 0 | 0 | 7.00 | 16 | 2 |
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.08
Double Chance X22.55
Double Chance 121.14
Over 1.5 Goals1.18
Under 1.5 Goals4.5
Historical Data
In their last 10 meetings, Dinamo Zagreb has had the upper hand with 5 wins, while HNK Hajduk Split has won twice. The matches have averaged 2 goals, with only 30% ending with over 2.5 goals and 40% with both teams scoring. Recent encounters, however, suggest a trend towards higher scoring, as evidenced by a 3-1 win for Dinamo Zagreb in their last meeting. Dinamo Zagreb's superior scoring ability, particularly at home, has been a decisive factor in these fixtures.
Model Output & Recommendation
The Poisson model predicts a 55% probability of a Dinamo Zagreb victory, with a 24% chance of a draw and a 21% chance for HNK Hajduk Split. The most likely scoreline is 2-1. The model's confidence score of 88% is derived from consistent data points, strength of recent performances, and alignment with historical trends. The odds favor a high-scoring match, with Over 2.5 goals priced at 1.57, reinforcing the expectation of an offensive display.
Statistical Deep Dive
Dinamo Zagreb enters the match with a formidable record, having won 15 of their last 20 matches and scoring an average of 3.05 goals per game. Their defense has been solid, conceding only 1.1 goals per game. At home, they are particularly dominant, scoring 3.22 goals on average while conceding 1.22. In contrast, HNK Hajduk Split averages 1.85 goals per game, with a stable defense conceding 0.9. However, their recent form shows a decline. The calculated xG for this match is 2.11 for Dinamo Zagreb and 1.22 for HNK Hajduk Split, suggesting a high-scoring game is likely. Over 2.5 goals occur in 80% of Dinamo Zagreb's recent matches, aligning with the model's prediction of a 58% probability.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
Who will win Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Hajduk Split?
Dinamo Zagreb is predicted to win with a 55% probability. This is supported by their superior goal-scoring average of 3.05 per match and a strong defensive record of 1.1 goals conceded on average. Their recent form and home advantage further bolster their chances.
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Which players are key to watch in Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Hajduk Split?
Dinamo Zagreb's D. Beljo, with 29 goals and a 7.24 rating, is crucial for their attacking prowess. His ability to find the net consistently makes him a threat. For HNK Hajduk Split, Y. Benrahou stands out with a 7.43 rating, contributing significantly in build-up play with 10 key passes in 4 appearances.
5
Are there injury concerns for Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Hajduk Split?
There are no significant injuries reported for either team. Both squads appear fit, allowing them to field their strongest line-ups, which may lead to a highly competitive match.
